Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 269.5 (-115) after it opened @ 266.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Burrow this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 38.9 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Joe Burrow has been among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 290.0 yards per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
- Joe Burrow has been among the best precision passers in the league since the start of last season with a stellar 69.6% Completion%, grading out in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-least yards in football (just 204.0 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season (67.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
278
Passing Yards
278
Passing Yards
