Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 259.5 (-110) after it opened @ 265.5 (-115).
Pros
- Joe Burrow has been among the top QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 266.0 yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
- Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 69.2% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
- Joe Burrow has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 8.05 yards-per-target while checking in at the 94th percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 32.8 passes this week, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
