Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jameis Winston from EV Insight

Jameis WinstonPassing Yards

Right now, Jameis Winston’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 219.5 (-115) after it opened @ 224.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has given their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jameis Winston has been among the least on-target passers in football since the start of last season with a 58.2% Completion%, ranking in the 23rd percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards