Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 225.5 (-133) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 28.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts has been among the least on-target passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a 59.6% Completion%, checking in at the 10th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards