Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 210.5 (-101) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Geno Smith has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a terrific 68.8% Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.34 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the league.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 33.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards