Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 243.5 (-105) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most yards in the NFL (281.0 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season (73.4%).

Cons

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Derek Carr has been among the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season with a 61.2% Completion%, grading out in the 16th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards