Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Saints vs. Titans
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 243.5 (-105) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most yards in the NFL (281.0 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season (73.4%).
Cons
- The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- Derek Carr has been among the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season with a 61.2% Completion%, grading out in the 16th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards
275
Passing Yards
