Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 221.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 221.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a big 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans O-line has given their QB a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards