Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 262.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 262.5 (-110) after it opened @ 268.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to attempt 39.6 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 6.96 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a lowly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
313
Passing Yards
313
Passing Yards
