Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Bryce YoungPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Bryce Young’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-133) after it opened @ 207.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 8.11 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Bryce Young to attempt 32.7 passes this week, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
