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Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

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Baker Mayfield

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 1

Vikings vs. Buccaneers

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-114).

Pros

  • The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The Buccaneers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
Cons

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 11.2 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 6th percentile among QBs.
  • Baker Mayfield has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 63.0 yards per game while ranking in the 6th percentile.
  • Baker Mayfield has been among the least efficient QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging just 5.89 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
  • The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection
THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards

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