WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Buccaneers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 11.2 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 6th percentile among QBs.
- Baker Mayfield has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 63.0 yards per game while ranking in the 6th percentile.
- Baker Mayfield has been among the least efficient QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging just 5.89 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
- The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards
294
Passing Yards
