Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Panthers vs. Browns
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 211.5 (-115) after it opened @ 219.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense as the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Carolina Panthers have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.2 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
