Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 256.5 (-125) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season (68.0%).
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
319
Passing Yards
319
Passing Yards
