Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 256.5 (-125) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season (68.0%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
319
Passing Yards