Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With one week of football under our belts, we can now start reviewing usage rates for our favorite fantasy football players. Week 1 stat lines can often be misleading, but there are some interesting trends to keep an eye on heading into Week 2.
Each week our usage report will look at one utilization stat that was noticeable and explain what that might mean for fantasy football moving forward.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Usage Report
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Keon Coleman’s Playing Time
The dynamic rookie wideout logged 73% of the Buffalo snaps, securing a massive role in this Buffalo offense very quickly. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are not traditional X receivers, and Coleman’s usage eliminates any doubt that the rookie will be assimilated slowly into this offense. Coleman played on 45 of the team’s 62 snaps.
Miami Dolphins: Backfield Uncertainty
It took just one week for the fantasy community to be confused about the Miami backfield. The Jaguars interior run defense limited Raheem Mostert, who saw six fewer snaps than teammate De’Von Achane. In the second half, we saw veteran Jeff Wilson steal 11 snaps and finish as the team’s leading rusher (26 yards). Mostert has already been ruled out of Thursday night’s battle with Buffalo, and rookie Jaylen Wright will likely be active this week as well. After Week 1, we are more confused than ever on the Dolphins running back usage.
New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson RB1
Rhamondre Stevenson had a disappointing 2023 season, but he was the major offensive force in the Patriots 16-10 upset at Cincinnati. He saw 78% of the snaps, one of the highest percentages of any lead running back for Week 1. Stevenson also carried 78% (25 of 32) of the team’s running back carries, displaying equally impressive symmetry.
New York Jets: Allen Lazard Perfection
It was Allen Lazard, not Garrett Wilson, who saw the highest snap percentage of any Jets wideout. Lazard was the only offensive skill player to see every snap, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers who was replaced by Tyrod Taylor. Rodgers has a connection with Lazard, which should secure his role alongside Wilson throughout the season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Justice Hill Role Secure
Derrick Henry started the game with five carries for 17 yards and a touchdown, providing misleading hope for fantasy drafters. The bruising veteran back saw only eight more carries the entire game, while Justice Hill ended with six more snaps (43 to 37). Henry is not going to see a repeat of his usage in Tennessee, as the Ravens clearly want to keep him fresh for later in the season. Hill is a presence, and obstacle, to Henry’s usage, and finished with a whopping 8 targets, 6 receptions and 52 receiving yards.
Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown False Hope
It is certainly concerning to see Chase Brown only log 33% of the Bengals snaps in a game Cincinnati consistently trailed. Brown saw only three carries and three targets, after a preseason where he received consistent praise from teammates and coaches. His lack of opportunities is even more confusing given the absence of WR Tee Higgins.
Cleveland Browns: Elijah Moore Gets Playing Time
Elijah Moore maintained a healthy snap share (93%), even outpacing new Cleveland wideout Jerry Jeudy (82%). Moore’s versatility is a unique weapon for a Browns team that needs help in the absence of running back Nick Chubb. Moore also saw six targets, just one fewer than Jeudy.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Arthur Smith Shenanigans
George Pickens is the clear WR1 for Pittsburgh, yet he played three fewer snaps than teammate Van Jefferson. Overall, Pickens was only on the field for 68% of the snaps but posted 6 receptions for 85 yards to lead the Steelers. His target share is secure, but Smith’s rushing preference could limit his weekly upside, especially with Jefferson seeing more opportunities.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Tank Dell Ceiling?
It is very difficult to have all three Houston wide receivers post solid fantasy production each week. The unknown variable was how Stefon Diggs would assimilate to this established passing attack. Diggs posted two touchdowns but just 33 yards in the Texans 29-27 win at Indianapolis. Nico Collins remains the clear WR1, leading the way with 80% of the snaps and a team-high eight targets. If Diggs becomes the short-yardage and goal-line receiving option, it’s Tank Dell who could fall very short of his preseason ADP.
Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce Stars
The absence of Josh Downs translated into a huge day for Alec Pierce. Per FTN Data, Pierce had the highest route participation of any NFL wide receiver last year and made the most of his Week 1 opportunity. His three receptions, 125 yards and one touchdown equated to the WR8 stat line in 0.5-point PPR formats.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Gabe Davis WR1
The new Jacksonville wideout saw 94% of the Jaguars’ snaps, easily outpacing both Brian Thomas Jr. (77%) and Christian Kirk (72%). This Jacksonville offense is explosive, and Week 1 conveyed that Davis is expected to be the lead option in this passing attack.
Tennessee Titans: Tyler Boyd Upside?
DeAndre Hopkins is trying to play through a torn MCL, which led to just a 27% snap share in their road loss at Chicago. Veteran Tyler Boyd saw 83% of the snaps, just one fewer than teammate Calvin Ridley. Will Hopkins’ snaps increase? Possibly, but if he can’t play though the pain and needs surgery, Boyd could step into a huge opportunity in Tennessee.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Jaleel McLaughlin Is Coming
Javonte Williams managed just 23 yards on eight carries, finishing two carries behind teammate Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams did see the opening carries on the first drive, but it was McLaughlin who was a much bigger part of the offense. With Wednesday’s news that rookie Audric Estime going on injured reserve, there should be more opportunities for both running backs, but who is the true RB1?
Kansas City Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco Dominance
The impact of the Samaje Perine addition may have been overstated, as Pacheco saw an impressive 80% of the Kansas City snaps in their 27-20 victory over Baltimore. Pacheco had 15 of the team’s 17 running back carries, along with three targets. Perine’s 15% snap share will certainly increase, but Pacheco RB1 role seems as secure as any in the NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders: Alexander Mattison RB1?
Zamir White’s 38% snap share was dwarfed by Alexander Mattison’s 60% rate, opening the door for a full-blown committee timeshare. White also fumbled, and Mattison scored a receiving touchdown. Given the massive discrepancy between their ADPs, White drafters should be very concerned.
Los Angeles Chargers: J.K. Dobbins is Healthy
After battling injuries over the past two seasons, J.K. Dobbins finally looks healthy. He parlayed a 57% snap share into the overall RB4 performance with 135 rushing yards and one touchdown. Gus Edwards is never going to see a high target share, so he needs Dobbins to cede some of those carries moving forward to maintain his fantasy relevance. Either way, Dobbins drafters are quite happy with his Week 1 performance.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Elliott/Dowdle Split
Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle combined for 18 of the team’s 19 running back carries, with Elliott leading the way with 10. Neither was a major force in the passing game, but it is worth monitoring if this split was only a result of a comfortable Dallas victory. Will Dowdle see more touches in closer matchups?
New York Giants: Malik Nabers 100% Snap Share
Rookie wideout Malik Nabers never left the field for the Giants, providing maximum opportunities for fantasy production moving forward. His 66 receiving yards led New York, but concerns remain on whether Daniel Jones’ struggles will suffocate his weekly upside.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Dominance
One week and one spectacular game for running back Saquon Barkley. The former New York Giant posted an 80% snap share and produced 132 total yards and three touchdowns. Could this year be the best ever for one of the NFL most talented rushers? Week 1 was a great start.
Washington Commanders: Stay the Course with Terry McLaurin
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels produced the overall QB3 stat line in his first game, but only connected twice with wideout Terry McLaurin for a total of 17 yards. Concerns about McLaurin should be assuaged by his dominant 81% snap share, 20% more than any other Commanders receiver.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet TE2
Fantasy drafters have been slow to recognize the obvious: Cole Kmet is the TE2 in Chicago. Gerald Everett posted a 61% snap share with 34 of the Bears 56 snaps. While both players only saw one target, it’s worth monitoring who gets the vacated targets if Keenan Allen or Rome Odunze miss time.
Detroit Lions: Gibbs/Montgomery Perfect Symmetry
Fantasy drafters of both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs were happy with their production during the Lions opening victory over the Rams. Gibbs saw just one more (31) snap than Montgomery and both players found the end zone. Montgomery saw more carries when the Lions were tied or leading, and Gibbs exploded in the passing game has expected.
Green Bay Packers: Romeo Doubs Leads the Way
Lost in the incredibly efficient performance from Jayden Reed (4/138/1), was Romeo Doubs’ 87% snap share. Doubs actually enjoyed the most targets (7) while seeing 15% more snaps than Reed. While Christian Watson and Reed scored the touchdown, Doubs saw the field the most.
Minnesota Vikings: Jalen Nailor Time?
Jordan Addison is listed as questionable for Week 2, which could open an opportunity for 2022 sixth-round pick Jalen Nailor. At 5-foot-11 with good burst, Jalen Nailor saw 47% of the snaps against the Giants, trailing Brandon Powell by only four snaps for second-most among wideouts. He only saw one target, but it was good for a 21-yard touchdown reception.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Exactly What We Thought
Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Darnell Mooney each saw snap shares of 89% or higher, but struggled to produce against the Steelers defense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins struggled in his first game back from a torn Achilles, but the positive sign was the snap share for these three Atlanta offensive weapons.
Carolina Panthers: Ja’Tavion Sanders Usage
It’s hard to find a key takeaway in the Panthers’ blowout at the hand of the Saints, but fourth-round rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders saw the second-highest snap share (73%) of any Carolina player other than quarterback Bryce Young. He only registered one reception for four yards, but his usage is worth monitoring moving forward.
New Orleans Saints: Taysom Hill Position?
Again, hard to draw significant conclusions from the Saints big win, but Taysom Hill received four rushing attempts in the first quarter. Hill posted only a 32% snap share but could play a much bigger role in closer games. His snaps and touches in this week’s battle at Dallas are critical to chart.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan Leads the Way
Rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan posted an 83% snap share, leading all Tampa Bay wideouts. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are the clear alphas in this passing game, but McMillan’s 53 snaps (and one touchdown catch) make him a fantastic late-round Best Ball pick for those that took the risk.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner RB1
The rumors of James Conner’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Conner saw a solid 67% snap share, but his return to the field for a goal line touch when it was his rest series was most impressive. Conner saw 77% of Arizona’s carries and all the carries inside the 10-yard line. That’s an RB1.
Los Angeles Rams: Blake Corum 0%
The big news for the Rams was the lack of a snap share for rookie running back Blake Corum. The highly touted rookie did not see the field against the Lions, translating to a dominant 91% snap share for Kyren Williams. The few snaps Williams didn’t see went to veteran Ronnie Rivers. It’s still early, but not a great sign for Corum.
San Francisco 49ers: Wally Pipp Strikes Again?
Christian McCaffrey was ruled out right before kickoff, leading to Jordan Mason’s dominant performance. The 2022 UDFA torched the Jets defense for 147 yards and a touchdown. As one of the few running backs to crest the 80% snap share mark, Mason is lined up for a huge fantasy opportunity until McCaffrey returns.
Seattle Seahawks: Stay patient with Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Even though Jaxon Smith-Njigba only produced two receptions for 19 receiving yards, he did see almost 80% of the snaps. Smith-Njigba was only six snaps behind DK Metcalf but resided in the shadow of Tyler Lockett’s six receptions for 77 receiving yards. Look for Smith-Njigba to bounceback in a huge way against the Patriots in Week 2.
