Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football world has already gotten a taste of Underdog Fantasy’s amazing interface in best ball drafts, with this year’s Best Ball Mania awarding $15,000,000 in prizes, but believe it or not, for a few years now, they’ve also offered a “Battle Royale” mode, which is a draft format, solely based on the Sunday afternoon games. In the Daily Battle Royale mode, you’re entered in a draft with five other players, drafting a lineup that will compete against every other lineup signed up in the Battle Royale. This week’s main Battle Royale contests are going to have a $300,000 prize pool with $30,000 offered for first place, which is not too shabby for a $5 entry.
Here are some details on the Week 14 contest:
Now that we’re ready to build some lineups, there are three important rules to apply in every single lineup that you’re drafting.
- Make sure to have some sort of stack in your lineup – It doesn’t necessarily need to be a full game stack, but with only six QBs selected in each draft, there should be a way for you to get the QB you need in your stack. If you start your draft with WR, WR through the first two rounds, 99% of the time, you’ll have the ability to pair one of them up with a QB in the third round. More often than not though, you’ll even be able to wait until later in the draft to put together a QB/WR combo. While you might not put together a QB/WR combo, you might be able to pair your QB with an opposing RB or WR, or maybe a WR with an opposing WR. There’s a lot of different ways to get some correlation, so keep it in the back of your mind when you’re making selections.
- Pay attention to your competition – If you don’t have the ability to give 100% attention to your draft, including the five other teams drafting in your lobby, don’t enter the contest. You can make or break your drafts just by keeping an eye on the positions the others are drafting. Every single draft will have a scenario that requires you to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For example: if you’re in the fifth round, drafting in fifth position, and still need to draft a QB, but see that the person drafting sixth has already drafted a QB, you definitely want to avoid picking your QB until the sixth round because there’s no way the person drafting sixth can pick a QB.
- Be creative with at least one of your picks – When it’s all said and done, there’s only going to be 36 players (6 QBs and 30 RB/WR/TEs) drafted in any given slate. Rostership is integral in every single GPP contest in DFS, and that includes these Battle Royales. It probably comes as no surprise that the top 36 players in ADP dominate the ownership. It doesn’t take much to differentiate your lineup, and you’re still going to be able to draft some pretty good players who have an ADP outside the top 36. With that said, I’ve looked over the results of the last three Battle Royales and there have been some winning lineups that haven’t been too unique, but more often than not, the way to go is to be a little different from the field.
Week 14 Battle Royale Strategy
Here is the current top 36 in ADP for Week 14’s Battle Royale:
Top Pairings
Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers, and Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Usually we’re struggling to be able to roster Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, but for whatever reason this week, Allen isn’t being drafted until the second or third round, and Herbert is going undrafted more often than not. The Broncos are a much-improved defense compared to what we witnessed in the first few weeks of Sean Payton’s tenure in Denver, but they’re still the second-worst defense DVOA and fifth worst against the pass. On the other end, Courtland Sutton isn’t really on the radar for many drafters, either. He’s currently the WR18 in the Battle Royale, and I feel that’s an oversight considering the Chargers defense have been in shambles for the majority of the season. This is definitely a trio of players that you can roster more often than not.
Justin Fields and DJ Moore, Chicago Bears, with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
The Bears and Lions just faced each other a few weeks ago, and while the weather conditions are far less ideal, this is a game that shouldn’t be overlooked. With Amon-Ra St. Brown being drafted in the mid to late first round of the Battle Royale, this pairing is going to be in play as long as we get him. If not, Sam LaPorta is certainly a viable alternative after coming off a career game last week against the Saints. As for the Bears, they showed quite a bit of confidence against a Lions defensive unit that has been struggling mightily in recent weeks. Justin Fields looks healthy and gets to face a Lions team that doesn’t seem to have much of an answer for QBs when they take off from the pocket. I also think DJ Moore is a pretty safe bet to produce from the outside. Opposing QBs have been attacking Jerry Jacobs lately, and Moore was able to run a number of different successful routes that kept him at bay in their last meeting at Ford Field.
Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham, Baltimore Ravens
With Mark Andrews out for the season, there’s no longer an obvious stacking partner for Lamar Jackson, but if I had to choose one to pair with him every single week, it would be Zay Flowers. Flowers has consistently been one of Jackson’s favorite targets throughout the season. Outside of the game against the Seahawks when the Ravens just ran over them, Flowers has targeted at least 15% of the time in every game, and usually around 25-30% of the time.
Top Low-Rostered Plays
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is being drafted as the QB7 in the Battle Royale this week. Herbert is coming off two difficult matchups against the Ravens and Patriots (mainly due to weather conditions), and unless his receivers fail him again, he should be in good shape to produce once again. It’s not often we’re able to roster him on weeks where he’s low owned. With two subpar defensive units in play, this game could end up being a shootout. With a total of 44, it’s the third-highest total of the week, and I think it certainly has the upside to be the highest scoring game of the week.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard is being drafted as the RB20 in the Battle Royale this week. It’s quite insane to see Hubbard still drafted this low considering he’s coming off his best game of the season and getting a whopping 25 carries that turned into 104 yards and two touchdowns. His 73.5% of the carries last week was higher than any other week this season where Miles Sanders was in uniform. The Saints defensive can be stingy, but besides being a bit banged up, they’re much better at defending the pass than they are at defending the run. They are ranked 25th in DVOA against the run.
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns
Elijah Moore is being drafted as the WR29 in the Battle Royale this week. As of right now, it appears Joe Flacco is going to get another start for the Browns, and that’s definitely going to help Moore’s chances of making a big impact on Sunday against the Jaguars. Moore is the only Browns receiver who Flacco has a history with, dating back to their time on the Jets. Moore’s 12 targets last week were the most he’s seen all season, and with Amari Cooper in concussion protocol, and Donovan Peoples-Jones in Detroit, he might be Flacco’s only consistent option.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is being drafted as the WR42 in the Battle Royale this week. I think Smith-Njigba is only going to get better from this point on. The matchup against the 49ers is pretty rough for Seattle, but I think we saw some glimpses of brilliance in last week’s disappointing loss to the Cowboys. Geno Smith was able to air the ball out and get the most out of both Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf. Smith-Njigba sees over 70% of his snaps from the slot and might emerge as more of a safety valve for Geno, who will undoubtedly see plenty of pressure from the daunting 49ers pass rush.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram is being drafted as the TE7 in the Battle Royale this week. Engram has a monster of a game Monday and was able to get some love from both Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard, catching all nine of his targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. He should get plenty of love from Beathard if he ends up starting over Lawrence against the Browns, and that’s possibly a stronger possibility with Christian Kirk out of the lineup.
