Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football world has already gotten a taste of Underdog Fantasy’s amazing interface in best ball drafts, with this year’s Best Ball Mania awarding $15,000,000 in prizes, but believe it or not, for a few years now, they’ve also offered a “Battle Royale” mode, which is a draft format, solely based on the Sunday afternoon games. In the Daily Battle Royale mode, you’re entered in a draft with five other players, drafting a lineup that will compete against every other lineup signed up in the Battle Royale. This week’s main Battle Royale contests are going to have a $300,000 prize pool with $30,000 offered for first place, which is not too shabby for a $5 entry.
Here are some details on the Week 10 contest:
Now that we’re ready to build some lineups, there are three important rules to apply in every single lineup that you’re drafting.
- Make sure to have some sort of stack in your lineup – It doesn’t necessarily need to be a full game stack, but with only six QBs selected in each draft, there should be a way for you to get the QB you need in your stack. If you start your draft with WR, WR through the first two rounds, 99% of the time, you’ll have the ability to pair one of them up with a QB in the third round. More often than not though, you’ll even be able to wait until later in the draft to put together a QB/WR combo. While you might not put together a QB/WR combo, you might be able to pair your QB with an opposing RB or WR, or maybe a WR with an opposing WR. There’s a lot of different ways to get some correlation, so keep it in the back of your mind when you’re making selections.
- Pay attention to your competition – If you don’t have the ability to give 100% attention to your draft, including the five other teams drafting in your lobby, don’t enter the contest. You can make or break your drafts just by keeping an eye on the positions the others are drafting. Every single draft will have a scenario that requires you to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For example: if you’re in the fifth round, drafting in fifth position, and still need to draft a QB, but see that the person drafting sixth has already drafted a QB, you definitely want to avoid picking your QB until the sixth round because there’s no way the person drafting sixth can pick a QB.
- Be creative with at least one of your picks – When it’s all said and done, there’s only going to be 36 players (6 QBs and 30 RB/WR/TEs) drafted in any given slate. Rostership is integral in every single GPP contest in DFS, and that includes these Battle Royales. It probably comes as no surprise that the top 36 players in ADP dominate the ownership. It doesn’t take much to differentiate your lineup, and you’re still going to be able to draft some pretty good players who have an ADP outside the top 36. With that said, I’ve looked over the results of the last three Battle Royales and there have been some winning lineups that haven’t been too unique, but more often than not, the way to go is to be a little different from the field.
Week 10 Battle Royale Strategy
Here is the current top 36 in ADP for Week 10’s Battle Royale:
Top Pairings
Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen is currently being drafted toward the end of the first round. You can usually grab him with the fourth, fifth or sixth picks, but Ja’Marr Chase’s iffy status for Week 10 might bump him up a spot or two. The main thing to consider with the Lions is that their defense has been pretty damn good at stopping the run this season. Injuries to their secondary has led to some instability in their defense against the pass, and I can see the Chargers taking advantage of it. With the Lions/Chargers game at the highest game total of the week, it might be a good idea to get a bunch of different combinations from this game. The main issue is that there’s a lot of work with, including Austin Ekeler, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta all with significant upside. Regardless, the combination of Justin Herbert and Allen is going to be super safe, and will be a combination I’ll safely roster numerous times in the Battle Royale.
Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
With Ja’Marr Chase possibly missing Week 10 or at least playing while banged up, I think there’s a huge opportunity to snag the Joe Burrow/Tee Higgins combo. Houston is 14th DVOA against the run but are 26th DVOA against the pass. We’ve seen Cincinnati habitually stray away from the ground game and with this game being the second-highest game total of the week, I would imagine the Bengals receivers having higher ceilings than usual.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons, and Marquise Brown or Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
If there’s a week where I can see Bijan Robinson getting unleashed, it’s the week where the Falcons are facing the league’s second-worst ranked defense against the run DVOA. There’s no way the Falcons should have lost last week’s game to a Joshua Dobbs led Vikings team, but it happened, and it puts Arthur Smith in a position where he is running out of excuses to not unleashing his first-round pick. As for the Cardinals, the return of Kyler Murray definitely boosts their two top targets to another level, but a matchup against a struggling Falcons secondary might actually make Kyler’s return a spectacular one.
Top Low-Rostered Plays
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders
A big reason why Sam Howell has performed so well from a fantasy perspective this season is because he’s slinging the ball a lot. Outside of an odd game where he only threw the ball 23 times against the Falcons, he has thrown 41, 51, 42, 52 and 45 passes since Week 4. With the QB options being thinner and thinner every single week, it’s crazy to see Howell as the QB10 in the Battle Royale.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White is being drafted as the RB14in the Battle Royale this week. He’s coming off of two of his best performances of the season yet is being left undrafted in the vast majority of these Battle Royales. The matchup against the Titans isn’t necessarily the greatest, but more than anything, I am banking on White’s upside due to his opportunity. He’s getting fed the ball more than ever and has become Baker Mayfield’s security blanket of sorts, catching three or more passes in seven consecutive games.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Marquise Brown is being drafted as the WR19 in the Battle Royale this week. It’s been a rough go for Brown since joining the Cardinals last season, but no matter how you look at it, he’s a better player with Kyler Murray as his QB compared to when someone else is at QB. The FTN Splits tool shows that every single stat gets a big boost with Kyler under center. I think it’s a mistake for Brown to be overlooked this week against a soft Falcons secondary.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas is being drafted as the WR34 in the Battle Royale this week. Thomas inexplicably got only one target last week against the lowly Bears, and I’m sure he’s looking forward to redeem himself this week against the Vikings. Derek Carr has been a bit underwhelming as the Saints QB, but there really shouldn’t be a reason for him not to be able to get Thomas the ball against a Vikings defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the WR position.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride is being drafted as the TE8 in the Battle Royale this week. After a career performance in Week 8 against the Ravens, McBride returned to Earth with Clayton Tune under center for the Cardinals. He actually gets the best possible matchup this week, going up against a Falcons team that has allowed more receiving yards to the TE position than any other team in the NFL.
