Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We find ourselves with two consecutive NFL DFS weeks of mega chalk. The lesson from last week isn’t that mega chalk running backs work (Jordan Mason) but wide receiver can be a complete bust (Cooper Kupp). The lesson is that how the chalk performs often matters less than your pivots.
If you had a lot of around 5% slate-breaking Alvin Kamara instead of Jordan Mason, you likely did really well last week. If you had a lot of Ladd McConkey, Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper instead of Cooper Kupp like I did, you did not. Playing contrarian doesn’t just mean the chalk needs to bust — your picks still need to do well too!
You can’t just be a hater and hope that means you’ll be mega rich. That’s just not how the world works. If it did, then everyone on Twitter would be too busy partying on their yachts with models instead of trolling and thinking of sarcastic replies while they eat four-day old pizza in their dusty apartments.
Let’s focus on some of the players I like this week and hope these core plays fare better than last week’s ones and better than the chalk plays this week. At least they can’t be much worse!
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
With Jordan Mason mega chalk working last week (though not mega smashing), I think the public will feel that Cam Akers and running back chalk is a sure thing. It by no means isn’t, especially for this Texans team that likes to throw the ball. This game could end up in a shootout with Stroud throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, but people don’t want to roster him because they prefer to hope for the middling third string running back to get the touchdowns.
I will have a wide variety of quarterbacks like usual, but Stroud is probably the first quarterback I’m looking to roster this slate.
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