NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to your first mega, mega chalk week! If you know anything about me, you know that I generally despise the mega chalk in DFS. I literally hate it with every ounce and fiber of my being, to the point that it’s kinda weird. I have family and friends that check on me when the mega chalk hits, not just because I lost a lot of money. They’re afraid I took it personally that the DFS Gods decided that mega chalk would work as a way of smiting me.
I have an intense hatred for the crowd psychology involved with the mega chalk for three major reasons:
- The reason people play the mega chalk is generally lame. They know it won’t result in them winning a lot if they play it; they just don’t want to be left in the dust if the chalk hits. It’s such a … how do you say politely … a wimpy way to look at things. DFS GPPs aren’t a game of not losing; it’s about getting first! This is why I am generally inclined to not play chalk.
- The reason people like the chalk is generally so simplistic and basic. “He’s going to get targets” or “they’ll put up points, so he gets volume.” No shit. In fairness, this is generally where we need to analyze in more detail if the chalk is in fact good (simple but correct) or if people just can’t see past their recency bias.
- It’s boring. DFS is about being creative with your choices and lineup construction. Just playing chalk is so lame.
The first and third reasons always ring true with chalk. However, it’s worth calmly analyzing the second reason to see how much I really should play a chalky player. The crowd doesn’t like players without a reason, so it’s worth analyzing how sharp or dumb their reasoning is.
Let’s look at the key chalky players of the week. I’ll talk about how much I am fading them, or if I will swallow my pride and frequently include some of them in my lineups.
To be clear, I will likely roster all of them at least a little. Just some will be very close to zero whereas others may be more in line with the public.
Week 2 DFS Chalk
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers
I can’t think of anything more braindead than blindly putting in Jordan Mason in all of your lineups thinking he’ll repeat what happened Monday night. Yes, he’s underpriced with Christian McCaffrey out. However, he’s underpriced by about $500-$1k, not $2k or so. Considering he’ll be on half of the rosters out there, that’s not enough value to force me on to him.
He seems to have limited passing game usage. After getting so many rushes last Monday, I doubt they’ll force feed him again. This Vikings team also seems to have some spunk to it, so the 49ers may end up in a close game or are trailing, which would take Mason largely out of the game.
I’ll have Mason in a few lineups. When I roster him, I’ll likely pair him with the 49ers defense. However, he’s a heavy fade for me in general.
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