Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 17.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts has topped 30 DraftKings points only twice this year, but he has flirted with massive ceilings all season. He started the year hot as a passer, but has cooled significantly, throwing for more than 200 yards — a low barrier — just once dating back to Week 8. The one time he did it, he threw for 296 yards against Washington, his Week 17 opponent.
He also rushed for 2 TDs against Washington in Week 15, marking his second time in his last four games that he has rushed for multiple scores. On the year, Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to QBs. Hurts massive rushing upside combined with his recent success against the bottom-feeding Washington pass defense makes him an easy choice for those with the highest slate-breaking potential this week.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen up against the 29th-ranked pass D and the team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs on the year? Yes, please. The Bills are 14-point home favorites with an implied total of nearly 30 points. Allen has been on fire recently, scoring over 33 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. He has now topped 30 points in five games this year. He’s been doing a lot of damage through the air (over 300 yards in two of his last three) but also on the ground (double-digit rush attempts in two of his last three after reaching that mark only once Weeks 1-13).
Long story short: Allen is firing on all cylinders — rushing and passing — against a weak defense.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
What happens when you mix the NFL rushing leader and fantasy MVP candidate with the 30th-ranked run defense and a team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs on the year? You end up with Jonathan Taylor in the slate-breakers article. His TD streak was broken in Week 16, but he still topped 100 yards for the sixth time in his last seven games.
The Raiders D has particularly struggled against RBs ever since their Week 8 bye. Devontae Booker kicked it off with 122 yards from scrimmage against them in Week 9, followed by 144 yards and a TD allowed to Darrel Williams, 123 yards and 2 TDs to Joe Mixon, 117 yards and a TD to the Dallas duo, 111 and a TD to Antonio Gibson, 170 and 4 TDs to the KC running back committee, and 93 yards and a TD to Nick Chubb.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Sorry, not being original here. But Cooper Kupp is once again in a slate-breaking position against the reeling Ravens defense. He has the second-best individual WR-CB matchup, and the Ravens defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to enemy WRs on the year. In last week’s game, the Ravens allowed Madden-like numbers to Bengals wideouts: Tee Higgins (12-194-2), Ja’Marr Chase (7-125-0), Tyler Boyd (3-85-1) and even Joe Mixon (6-70-1).
Kupp’s rampage through the 2021 season will continue. He has double-digit targets in all but one game (9 in that game), and he has at least 90 receiving yards in all but one game (64). He’s currently riding his best streak, with over 100 yards in 4 straight and 4 TDs in that span.
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Not only is Mike Evans dealing with a hamstring injury (with Chris Godwin already on IR), but Evans also just landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, potentially setting up Brown for a massive game. Brown feasted last week with a season-high 15 targets. He caught 10 of those balls for 101 yards, giving him a big game, but he didn’t score, so there was no ceiling. He had 4 TDs in five games prior to his injury/suspension, so we know the TDs are a common occurrence with him.
Brown now has double-digit targets in three of his six games this season, and there’s no reason to think we won’t reach that number again in Week 16 with the lack of other options in Tampa’s passing game at the moment. There cherry on top is that Brown has the best individual WR-CB matchup of the week against the Jets.
