Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
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Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers Week 5 odds
- Bet: Broncos -1.5
- Odds: -110
I bet the Broncos at +1. on Sunday night, but I still like them as short favorites.
On defense, they’re No. 3 with 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt allowed, and Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger looks like the worst non-rookie passer in the league: He’s No. 27 with a 5.5 AY/A — just below Mac Jones (5.7) and just ahead of backup Jacoby Brissett (4.9) and rookies Justin Fields (4.9), Zach Wilson (4.6), Trevor Lawrence (4.6) and Davis Mills (2.6).
The Broncos defense should be able to limit the Steelers offense.
And I’m writing off most of what we saw last week from the Broncos offense, especially once backup Drew Lock entered the game.
Starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) is expected to clear the league’s protocol in time for Week 5, and he has played career-best football through four weeks, ranking No. 5 with a 72.1% completion rate and No. 6 with an 8.9 AY/A.
Bridgewater on the road is 23-3 against the spread (ATS) for his career.
Pick: Broncos -1.5
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns Week 5 odds
- Bet: Chargers Moneyline
- Odds: -125
This line is in the -130s across the industry, so there’s good line-shopping value in betting it at DraftKings.
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (shoulder) has a partially torn left labrum, which has dramatically impacted his play over the past two weeks.
- Weeks 1-2: 81.6% completion rate, 9.5 AY/A
- Weeks 3-4: 53.1% completion rate, 6.6 AY/A
Playing at what looks like half capacity, Mayfield will be unable to make the Chargers respect the passing game, which means it will be much easier for them to stop the running game.
With quarterback Justin Herbert, the Chargers are No. 1 in the league in time (3:24) and plays (7.45) and No. 2 in yards (41.2) per drive.
At home, with an offense that can dominate the ball and a defense facing an injured game-managing quarterback, the Chargers should be able to win if they are indeed the Super Bowl contenders I think they are.
Pick: Chargers -125
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Week 5 odds
- Bet: Under 53
- Odds: -110
This line opened at 49 across the industry and was bet up to 53 before settling back down to 52 and 52.5 at most books, so I’m sniping off the lone 53 remaining in the market.
I understand why this line has been bet up. With Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator, the Cowboys over is 23-13. With Moore and quarterback Dak Prescott, the over is 17-8. And in the post-Jason Garrett era, the Moore/Dak over is 7-2.
When Moore is free to do what he wants on offense and has his starting quarterback, he can put points.
But the Giants are an over-snuffing wet blanket.
With head coach Joe Judge, the Giants under is 14-5-1. I don’t think that’s random: The combination of Judge’s hard-nosed pragmatism and Garrett’s offensive conservatism serves to drive games to the under.
In a divisional matchup with a high total that has been driven up by public bettors (62% of the tickets but just 50% of the money is on the over), I’ll be the eternal pessimist and take the under.
Pick: Under 53
