Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
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Tennessee Titans at New York Jets Week 4 odds
- Bet: -6
- Odds: -105
I first bet this Sunday night at -6.5, and by the middle of the week it was at -7.5, but now with the news that both wide receivers A.J. Brown (hamstring) and Julio Jones (hamstring) are out for the Titans, the line has dropped down to -6.
Even without Brown and Jones, I like the Titans in this matchup.
The Jets are horrendous on offense: They rank No. 32 in the league with just 6.7 points per game and 0.57 points per drive. They’re bottom-five in time (2:26), plays (5.26), and yards (21.4) per drive. They’re No. 30 with 4.1 yards per play and seven turnovers.
They’re better on defense, ranking No. 22 with 5.4 yards per play allowed — but they’re still not good on that side of the ball.
The Jets are the only team in the league with an 0-3 record ATS as underdogs this year. They are a team to bet against.
The Titans are bad on defense, ranking No. 26 with 6.1 yards allowed per play.
But they still have running back Derrick Henry, and the Titans are No. 6 with 4.8 yards per carry and No. 2 with 99 carries on the year. I expect them to run all over the Jets, who have allowed over 100 yards rushing in each game this year.
Pick: Titans -6
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys Week 4 odds
- Bet: Panthers Moneyline
- Odds: +175
In this matchup, we have two of the league’s three teams that are 3-0 against the spread.
To this point in the season, I seem to have massively underestimated the Cowboys. Maybe that’s because I’m a Cowboys fan and my love-hate relationship with this team clouds my judgment. Regardless, I am a sad 0-3 betting against the Cowboys this year.
But I am 3-0 betting on the Panthers. I feel I have a good read on this team. Say all you want about their opening schedule of Jets, Saints and Texans. They haven’t just won each game. They’ve also covered each game. And they haven’t just covered. They’ve covered by an average of +8.83 points per game.
The Panthers are exactly what they look like: A good (maybe elite) defense with a good-enough offense.
The sample is small, and the competition has not been fierce, but the Panthers defense is No. 1 in the league in yards per play (3.8) and time (2:15), plays (4.6), and yards (17.2) per drive, as well as pass DVOA (-31.4%) and run DVOA (-51.4%), per Football Outsiders. Overall, the Panthers are No. 2 in points allowed per game (10.0) and per drive (0.94).
And then on offense they are No. 14 in yards per play (5.7), No. 15 in yards per drive (34.2), No. 16 in points per game (23.0), and No. 18 in points per drive (2.09). Right now, Sam Darnold is playing career-best football with a 68.2% completion rate and 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt.
The Panthers on both sides of the ball have clear correlation between their underlying metrics and points.
That’s not the case with the Cowboys.
On offense, we know who the Cowboys are: They are legit, ranking top-10 in overall yards passing (832) and yards rushing (418).
But this defense is fake. Fake, fake, fake. It’s No. 31 in overall yards passing (995) — but No. 1 in interceptions (six). It’s No. 25 in yards per drive (37.7) — but No. 1 in total turnovers (eight).
The Cowboys defense is living on luck right now, and eventually luck runs out.
Why shouldn’t it run out in this game — especially given that the Panthers have four extra days to rest and prepare compared to the Cowboys?
Underdogs are 7-2 ATS against the Cowboys under head coach Mike McCarthy, and Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is 9-4 ATS as an underdog and a wonderful 8-1 ATS on the road.
Given the underlying numbers of both teams and the ATS profiles they possess, I’m comfortable investing in the Panthers to win outright.
Pick: Panthers +175
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants Week 4 odds
- Bet: Under 42
- Odds: -110
This line cannot drop far enough. I bet it Sunday night at 47, but it has steadily dropped throughout the week. It is now straddling the 41.5/42 borderline across the industry, and at BetMGM it’s at 41.
If you like the under on this game, you’ll probably want to bet it soon, because this line could continue to drop.
Under conservative head coach Joe Judge and incompetent offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, the Giants have an under record of 14-4-1 since last year. That makes sense.
As for the Saints, I talked about them on the Sept. 28 episode of the Degenerate Sports Betting Show.
This year the Saints have a 3-0 under record, as they are No. 7 in yards per play allowed (4.7) but No. 29 in yards per play (4.3). That combination of near-elite defense and poor offense serves to drive games to the under — and I’m betting that’s what we see in this game.
Pick: Under 42
