MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For my best Week 3 bets — and, really, ALL my NFL bets — check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets Week 3 odds
- Bet: Broncos -10.5
- Odds: -105
I talked about the Jets this week on the Tuesday edition of the Degenerate Sports Betting Show: They’re the only team in the league that is 0-2 against the spread as an underdog.
They are very bad on offense. Quarterback Zach Wilson has looked like a big-armed rookie who faced small-school competition in college. The Jets are No. 29 in the league with 4.6 yards per play and No. 31 with 20 points scored in total.
But I must admit that I am intrigued by what head coach Robert Saleh is doing on defense: Despite having the worst opponent starting field position in the league (38.3-yard line), the Jets through two weeks are a top-12 unit in time (2:34), plays (5.5), yards (27.6), and points (2.00) allowed per drive.
They don’t have many playmakers, but the Jets might have a legit defense.
But the Broncos unquestionably have a legit defense — an established, top-five unit. And in quarterback Teddy Bridgewater they now have a veteran game manager who doesn’t make mistakes.
On top of that, this year he has displayed a surprising amount of downfield aggressiveness, resulting in a career-best 9.6 AY/A.
And Bridgewater is a cover machine. The Broncos are 2-0 ATS, and for his career Bridgewater is 38-14 ATS overall and 13-7 ATS as a favorite.
Pick: Broncos -10.5
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Week 3 odds
- Bet: Packers Moneyline
- Odds: +150
People will remember the Packers losing 37-20 to the 49ers in San Francisco two years ago in the NFC Championship game, and I think they’ll make too much of that.
The 49ers ran all over the Packers in that game, and the defense gave Aaron Rodgers some problems: He had two interceptions.
But let’s also remember that Rodgers was still 31-of-39 passing for 326 yards, and Jimmy Garoppolo attempted just eight passes. Eight.
The 49ers still don’t think highly of Garoppolo, and their pass defense isn’t what it was then, especially now that they are without No. 1 cornerback Jason Verrett.
The Packers are still weak in run defense. This year they’re No. 26 with 4.8 yards allowed per rush.
But the 49ers now have serious issues at running back. Lead back Raheem Mostert (knee) is out for the season. Promising backup Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is doubtful. Third-stringer Ja’Mycal Hasty (ankle) is out. Fourth-string rookie Trey Sermon (concussion) has been cleared from the protocol, but he has just one NFL carry. With his third-round draft capital and college production (965 yards, four touchdowns in eight games at Ohio State as a senior), Sermon clearly has talent — but it’s troubling that he failed to beat out Mitchell and Hasty in the preseason.
Simply, the 49ers might not have their usually prolific rushing attack in Week 3.
I tend not to back Rodgers as an underdog or away from Lambeau Field. As a road dog, he’s just 22-21-2 ATS.
But +150 feels like too much, especially considering 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s ability to make the least out of an edge.
Underdogs are 18-10-1 ATS against Shanahan’s 49ers. Visitors are also 18-10-1 ATS against him. And road dogs against Shanahan are an outstanding 11-3-1 ATS — and 8-7 straight up with a significant profit of +9.27 units.
I must back the Packers in this spot — even on the moneyline.
Pick: Packers +150
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Week 3 odds
- Bet: Over 51.5
- Odds: -110
With Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the over is 21-13.
With Moore and quarterback Dak Prescott, the over is 15-8.
And with Moore, Prescott, and head coach Mike McCarthy, it’s 5-2.
When the Cowboys played the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles last year in Week 16, the two teams combined for 54 points in a game with an over/under of 50.
The Cowboys have a great offense (No. 5 with 41.4 yards per drive) and horrible defense (No. 30 with 42.0 yards allowed per drive). That drives games to the over.
Pick: Over 51.5
