Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings relative to the rest of the market.
For my best Week 2 bets — and, really, ALL my NFL bets — check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.
New England Patriots at New York Jets Week 2 Odds
- Bet: Patriots -6
- Odds: -105
This line opened at -3.5 on Sunday night and has steadily been bet up to -6 at -110 across the industry, so I’m getting a little bit of a discount to market right now by betting this at DraftKings — but I’m definitely not getting the best of the number overall.
Ugh.
I regret not betting this earlier, but I still believe I’m fine as long as I’m not going higher than -6.
The Patriots look like they have returned to form on defense, and rookie quarterback Mac Jones impressed with his poise and game manager-plus efficiency in Week 1.
Pick: Patriots -6 (-105)
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Week 2 Odds
- Bet: Panthers Moneyline
- Odds: +155
I like the Panthers in general for the 2021 season. They’ve invested significant draft capital in their defense over the past two years, and I expect their offense to progress as quarterback Sam Darnold settles into the system.
Given that Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is 8-4 as an underdog against the spread, I think a bet on the moneyline is justified, as the spread is just +3 at most books.
The Saints are vulnerable. They have significant injury issues on both sides of the ball.
On offense, center Erik McCoy and wide receivers Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith are out. On defense, edge rusher Marcus Davenport and linebacker Kwon Alexander are out, and defensive backs Marshon Lattimore, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and P.J. Williams are all questionable at best.
In a divisional game, I’ll take the feisty up-and-coming underdog at home against a wounded team coming off an upset blowout victory.
Pick: Panthers +155
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks Week 2 Odds
- Bet: Over 54
- Odds: -110
Despite what we saw out of the Titans last week, both of these teams have above-average offenses and mediocre-at-best defenses.
The Titans in particular have a weak pass defense. In Week 1, they coughed up a 289-4-1 passing and 5-20-1 rushing performance to Kyler Murray.
I expect that the Seahawks will be what they were in Week 1, and that Titans will improve on offense and be just as poor on defense.
In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 27 starts with the Titans in the regular season, the over is 21-5-1.
Pick: Over 54 (-110)
