Top 3 NFL DraftKings betting picks

Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.

Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.

For all of this week’s best bets, make sure to check out our FTN Bet Tracker.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles Week 11 Odds

• Bet: Eagles -2.5
• Odds: -115

This game has been one of the preferred targets for the sharps this week. The Eagles opened up as small home favorites, but it has slowly crept up across the industry. The Eagles are now listed as consensus three-point favorites in our Betting Odds tool, but you can still grab them at -2.5 (-115) on DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s the best mark across the industry.

The Saints have been better than the Eagles this season — they rank 8th in Football Outsiders DVOA, the Eagles rank 15th — but it’s fair to wonder if the Saints are the better team right now. They’ve had to overcome some key injuries on offense, losing Michael Thomas, Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara. Taysom Hill is also questionable, which would leave Trevor Siemian without a ton of options to lean on vs. the Eagles. Hill being out would also remove the wildcat package from their offense.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off one of their best games of the year last week against the Broncos. They racked up more than 200 rushing yards, and rookie first-rounder DeVonta Smith scored two receiving touchdowns.

Ultimately, the Eagles have received 54% of the spread dollars on just 36% of the bets, so they’re the side I want to be on in this contest.

Pick: Eagles -2.5

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers Week 11 Odds

• Bet: Football Team ML
• Odds: +150

The big news in this contest is that the Panthers will be starting Cam Newton at quarterback. He made his team debut last week, and he recorded a rushing and passing touchdown as a goal-line specialist. He will replace P.J. Walker as the full-time starter this week, which should be an upgrade for the offense.

Even though the Patriots moved on from Newton, he had a decent year last season. He racked up 13 rushing touchdowns, and he also averaged 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt. While that’s not a great mark, it’s better than what the Panthers have gotten from Walker and Sam Darnold recently.

That said, don’t expect the Panthers defense to play as well as they did last week. They limited the Cardinals to just 10 points and 169 yards, but that was with Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler at quarterback. The Football Team offense is far from a juggernaut, but expect them to fare much better. Prior to last week, the Panthers had allowed an average of 25.5 points over their previous six games. 

If the Panthers’ defense shows some regression this week, the Football Team has a chance to pull off the upset. They beat the Buccaneers last week, so there’s no reason they can’t beat the Panthers.

Pick: Football Team ML

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars Week 11 Odds

• Bet: Under 45.5
• Odds: -110

The total on this game has been moving down all week, but you can still grab 45.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s not necessarily a key number in total betting, but any form of value is a plus.

The 49ers’ rushing attack makes the under valuable in this contest. The 49ers have been a run-first team for years, but they took things to another level last week against the Rams. They finished with 42 carries and 19 pass attempts, despite the fact that they entered that contest as sizable underdogs. They’re sizable favorites against the Jaguars, so there could be another run-heavy game script in the cards.

Run-heavy game scripts tend to lead to a lot of long, sustained drives. The 49ers started the game with an 18-play, 11:03 minute drive, and they had two other drives that killed at least six-plus minutes. Even if the 49ers score on those drives, killing the clock is normally great for the under.

The 49ers’ defense is also an excellent unit. They limited the Rams to just 10 points, and the Rams are significantly better offensively than the Jaguars. They still rank second in offensive DVOA, while the Jaguars rank 24th.

Overall, I’m expecting a low-scoring game.

Pick: Under 45.5