Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10%.
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 7
1. A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants threw a curveball at us last week. They were one of the best WR1 matchups in all of football going into their matchup with Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals, but then they doubled Chase all night. Specifically, they left a safety over the top of Chase, taking away explosives. This left Tee Higgins a ton of opportunity, which he turned into 7-77.
The difference in my mind this week is that if they leave DeVonta Smith with the same opportunity Higgins had, Smith will turn those into the same type of explosive plays the Giants took away from Chase. I think one of these guys goes off, in which case Jalen Hurts would also be a solid play.
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
There’s one other option for New York. They are sixth in single high rate, playing single high 65% of the time. It’s possible that they will instead choose to leave two safeties over the top all game, which would mean big things for Saquon Barkley in this ultimate revenge matchup (I don’t care about the narrative, and I am worried it will make Barkley more popular than he otherwise would be).
I can make this promise — I will have at least one of Brown, Smith or Barkley in my SE lineup. Also, if you do choose Barkley, consider adding the Eagles DST for some correlation as they have the highest GPP Score for defenses.
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