NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10%.
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 12
1. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill isn’t just the best play on the slate — he’s the best play of the entire season. The matchup is phenomenal, we saw signs of a breakout coming last week (and the fact that it still hasn’t is what’s keeping his rostership down), and he’s tremendous leverage off the chalky De’Von Achane. He’ll be the first hot take and my first slate breaker, too.
2. Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers — StatsHub Special
Jayden Reed leads the NFL in YPRR against zone coverage:
He also leads his team with 167 routes and 3.0 YPRR out of the slot. The Niners play the sixth-most zone and allow the fourth highest YPRR to the slot. Matchups don’t get much better than that!
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