Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 3’s primetime Thursday Night Football matchup features the Pittsburgh Steelers facing the Cleveland Browns. While this may not be the most exciting game of the season, it’s always good to see two division rivals slug it out on national television. With a 3.5-point spread favoring the Browns and a 38.5 total, it’s clear the sportsbooks are expecting a relatively low-scoring but competitive game.
While I don’t have a strong take on the side in this game, I am surprised that there is enough confidence out there for Jacoby Brissett to be favored by more than a field goal in a divisional game. Here is my favorite prop for Thursday’s game
David Njoku Over 30 Receiving Yards
David Njoku to Score a Touchdown
Sane-Game Parlay: +600, DraftKings Sportsbook
With a low total, I decided to attack some high-upside options in this game at a reasonable price. David Njoku was the talk of the town this offseason, after receiving a contract making him one of the highest-paid tight ends in football. Despite that, he still hasn’t produced the way people wanted, making him a solid buy-low option in Week 3. Njoku hit the 30-yard mark in one of two games thus far and hasn’t scored a touchdown on the season yet. Some good injury news for Njoku’s stock did come out, with Jesse James ruled out with a triceps injury. While this isn’t groundbreaking, they did play a lot of two-TE sets (especially in the red zone) and more opportunity is all we can ask for.
Njoku’s box score doesn’t quite give him enough credit, considering he made a great red zone catch last game that was just ruled incomplete. He’s currently tied for first in red zone targets for the Browns and is clearly a part of their game plan down there. While Harrison Bryant does play a role on this team, Njoku is almost out snapping him 2:1, meaning I have much more trust in plays being designed for the featured tight end in the redzone. While this game could definitely be a snoozefest, I like the upside at +600 here.
