Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Seahawks vs. 49ers is one of the most important games of the season, and we all get to watch it in primetime Thursday night. If the 49ers win this game, they officially clinch the division, but if the Seahawks win it’s still wide open. With the Commanders, Giants and Lions all firmly in the NFC Wild Card mix, a loss would be very rough for the Seahawks here. The 49ers may be stuck without their starting quarterback, but Brock Purdy has stepped up and looked impressive in the last two games against the Buccaneers and Dolphins, but he is questionable coming into this game.
Attacking the 49ers defense is tough, considering all around they are probably the best in the NFL. The Seahawks have a fairly balanced offensive attack, but I really do think their run game is going to struggle here. Seahawks fans will be excited that Kenneth Walker is back in the lineup, but the 49ers still haven’t allowed a single RB to eclipse 60 rushing yards this season. Walker has been impressive, but he has been largely inefficient, gaining most of his yards on huge chunk plays. While that’s resulted in some great games, it’s a tough formula against a San Francisco team that is great at limiting big plays, I think they’re forced to rely more on the passing game.
With all that in mind, here’s a look at my favorite prop from the game.
Marquise Goodwin Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
We know Marquise Goodwin has speed and big-play ability. The former Olympic track-and-field athlete has great speed, and combining that with a 10.3-yard aDOT gives you the possibility to cash this ticket in one play. He’s coming into this game with great recent form, cashing this number in seven of his last eight games. His one miss was 8 yards shy, and he was injured in the second half of that game. He recorded 95 yards on 6 targets last week, playing an impressive 76% of the snaps. You really don’t see hit rates like this too often, and while I understand that DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are much sexier names, they will also be garnering tougher defensive assignments with Charvarious Ward and Jimmie Ward.
Looking back, the 49ers have also struggled against WR3s in recent weeks. Julio Jones had 38 yards, Trent Sherfield 75, Rashid Shaheed 53 and A.J. Green 50 over the last five weeks. San Francisco has had a couple miscommunications in their secondary (especially centered around Talanoa Hufanga blown coverages), with bigger-name wide receivers drawing too much attention, leading to these WR3s streaking down the field. Goodwin fits the athletic profile of these guys that have been able to take advantage of it, and his stats back it up with a 14th-best 15.1 YPR. Finally, this is also a revenge game for Goodwin, who spent a good chunk of his career with the 49ers. While I don’t think there is any bad blood, I would imagine he would want to impress against the team he’s had the most success with.
