Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After the colorful fireworks and seemingly endless parades complete, many sports fans are mentally making the seasonal transition to football. With thoughts of tailgating, pigskin and futures tickets front and center, FTN’s Brad Evans sorts through Tipico Sportsbook’s lengthy array of options to unearth the best values. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Calvin Ridley to post the most receiving yards in the 2021 season (+1000)
Riddle me this: How is a proven wide receiver, entrenched in a prolific passing offense who could tap into an additional 7.6 targets per game vacated after a certain now-former teammate was dealt to the Tennessee Titans 10/1 to outpace every pass catcher in the league?! Sign this numbskull up. Calvin Ridley, who finished fifth in this competition a season ago, could get over the hump this fall. Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins and others present stiff competition, but the table is set in Atlanta, and the wideout, with knife and fork in hand, is fully prepared to dig in. Last year, he slotted inside the position’s top-five in several critical analytics, including air yards share, total air yards and yards per route. Interestingly, he also ranked No. 1 in unrealized air yards largely due to his WR67 standing in catchable target rate. With Julio Jones out of the picture and Atlanta’s leaky defense still very much in need of Flex Seal, he could surpass 160 targets over an extended 17-game season. If Matt Ryan improves his touch on rips to Ridley, 1,500-plus yards is practically a foregone conclusion. Among realistic options in this category, the Falcon is far and away the finest value.
Trey Lance to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+650)
Everywhere you look. Everywhere you turn. Positive spins on Trey Lance spouted by Niners insiders are omnipresent. Momentum is quickly gaining for the rookie to start the season under center Week 1 at Detroit. Superlatives about the youngster are already bellowing from the Bay. He’s earned rave reviews for his quick playbook absorption, impressive reads and progressions, huddle command and versatile tools. It seems clear, if his early returns carry over into training camp and the Preseason, the greenhorn will usurp Jimmy Garoppolo in short order. Out of this year’s first-year QB class, Lance is arguably in the most nourishing environment. The offensive line is widely projected to be a top-10 pass-blocking unit. Additionally, the arsenal surrounding him — Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle — is outstanding. To top it off, Kyle Shanahan is unquestionably one of the best offensive minds in the game. Toss in a likely upper-crust defense and projecting an OROY trophy is completely buyable. Expect this number to plummet even further as August unfolds.
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