Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 16 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with a matchup of two potential playoff teams. The San Francisco 49ers will travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. The 49ers are currently 8-6, currently the sixth seed in the NFC. The Titans are 9-5, tied for second in the AFC and one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the top spot.
The 49ers are lucky to have largely avoided COVID-19 scares so far. The only major injury news to monitor is whether Elijah Mitchell will be available for this game. Jeff Wilson has filled in nicely in his absence, and the 49ers also recently activated Trey Sermon too, so even if Mitchell sits, they are covered at RB this week. For the Titans, injuries have been a major part of their season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The loss of Derrick Henry is a major blow, and Julio Jones went down again last week and has not practiced yet. They do have some good news though, as it looks like A.J. Brown could be available for this game.
Both teams could use a win here to help solidify their playoff status, but in reality even a loss does not knock either of them from the playoffs on its own. Let’s take a look at some of the betting angles here.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans
(49ers -3.5, O/U 44.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
When I run my numbers on this game, I get that the Titans should be a slight favorite or at worst this game should be a pick ’em. I do have the 49ers ranked slightly higher, but when you factor in the home-field advantage it becomes basically an even game. The Titans are a home dog getting over a field goal at +3.5. That is where the value lies in this one for me. You can play them on the moneyline if you want, but I prefer the protection of the +3.5. If it was +2.5 or less, then I would opt for the moneyline, but if you are giving me a number that gets me a win on the field goal, I will take that every time.
Pick: Titans +3.5
The total is a little tougher for me to figure here. The 49ers have been playing many games well past this total. The surprising thing to me is that their defense has been yielding points and their offense is scoring a bunch. That is not exactly what we expected to see from them coming into the year. The Titans are also a team that is not playing the way many expected the last few weeks. Their offense was what carried them in year’s past and earlier this season too. Right now, the offense is not putting up major points. They have not scored over 23 since Week 10. Their games have been lower scoring and slower paced, with the defense looking better. Maybe A.J. Brown changes that, but it is a contrast in styles. I don’t think the Titans can win in a shootout and I like them to win this game. If they do happen to win, it’s going to be a lower scoring game, so I’m taking the under on this one as well.
Pick: Under 44.5
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Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football
Deebo Samuel Finds the End Zone
(Anytime touchdown, +140, BetMGM)
The Titans defense is playing much better, but the main positive for them is in their secondary. The weakness of this defense is against the run and that is where the 49ers will look to exploit them Thursday. Deebo Samuel has had a rushing touchdown in each of the last five games, totaling 7 touchdowns in five games since Week 10. That +140 seems like a gift with that type of consistency, and with Christmas so close, ‘tis the season for accepting presents.
Elijah Mitchell Scores in His Return
(Anytime touchdown, +220, BetMGM)
I have no idea if Elijah Mitchell will play Thursday, but his status is better than it was last week. I think one of two things happens here: He either plays and carries the main load of a multi-back attack that is run heavy, or he sits and doesn’t play at all. If he sits, we get back our bet when it is voided. If he plays though, this line will get chopped in half down to even money or +120 at the worst, which means we will have 100+ basis points of value. It is a gamble, but the downside is minimal as we would get our money back. The upside though would be huge if he is announced in before kickoff.
George Kittle Scores Yet Again
(Anytime touchdown, +145, BetMGM)
I know three touchdown scorers from the same team sounds crazy, but we only need to hit on two of the three for a big profit on the day with each of them at plus money. George Kittle returned to action in Week 9 and has scored a touchdown in five of the last seven games he played dating back to before his injury. A guy who is finding the end zone that often should not be sitting at +145. The Titans are good against the pass defensively, but Kittle is a guy who breaks the mold. If the 49ers get into passing situation down near the red zone, he is their biggest threat and he is also athletic enough to take a pass from anywhere on the field and break a tackle or outrun an opponent to get into the end zone. I expected him to be at worst 25 basis points lower than this and some books have this as low at +110. I’ll take the enhanced payout on BetMGM all the way to the bank and use it to help offset the massive credit card bills my wife ran up buying Chrismas presents for the kids. Forget St. Nick, put your faith in St. Kittle to spread some early holiday cheer.
