Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy football drafts are underway, and there are still leagues drafting during the final week of the preseason! Each team provides myriad players to choose, so it’s critical to identify the best players from each team to target in your drafts so you end up with a winning squad. Get those fantasy football cheat sheets and fantasy football rankings ready as we go through the worst fantasy football pick from every single NFL team.
Average draft position data comes from FTN’s Underdog ADP tool. Thursday, I posted the best fantasy pick from each team. Below, we look at the worst fantasy football pick from each team.
The Worst Fantasy Pick on Each NFL Team for 2024
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a great NFL wide receiver, but drafting him as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in his rookie season is ludicrous. He can have a very good rookie season and still fall short of this ADP. The Arizona offense is good but not among the NFL’s elite, and Harrison could still be the second option to tight end Trey McBride. I don’t want to draft players at their ceiling, and Harrison is the riskiest first-round pick on the board.
Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins, QB
Cousins is a 36-year-old quarterback, changing teams and coming off a Achilles tear. Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the first round of the draft and proceeded to limit his snaps in the preseason. At the deepest position in fantasy, there are much better options than Cousins.
Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR
Flowers is being drafted around the back-end WR2 area after a strong rookie season. But using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool, it is clear his production is suppressed when tight end Mark Andrews is on the field. Flowers posted 30.5% fewer fantasy points per game in 0.5 PPR formats and 68.4% fewer touchdowns when the Ravens starting tight end shared the field.
Buffalo Bills: James Cook, RB
Are we sure James Cook is getting the goal-line touches? I am not, which makes his RB13 ADP ahead of Kenneth Walker and Josh Jacobs just insane.
Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette, WR
Diontae Johnson joined the team, Adam Thielen had 103 receptions last year, and rookie Jonathon Brooks is a dynamic pass-catcher scheduled to return in Week 5. Why roster Legette in redraft leagues?
Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR
People love to overvalue rookies. Odunze going ahead of Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin is fantasy football malpractice. He’s the third-best option on the Bears passing attack.
Cincinnati Bengals: Zack Moss, RB
If Chase Brown is my favorite pick on the Bengals, Moss must be my worst pick. I don’t believe his talent has secured a role strong enough to justify going ahead of players such as Devin Singletary or Brian Robinson Jr.
Cleveland Browns: Amari Cooper, WR
Jerry Jeudy steals targets, David Njoki is an ascending tight end, and I have questions about Deshaun Watson’s arm and ability.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott, QB
Prescott had a great year in 2023, but quarterback is such a deep position, and he has limited rushing production. Will the offensive line still be strong? Will Prescott produce as well with another year of inferior rushing production?
Denver Broncos: Javonte Williams, RB
I still believe the presence of Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime give head coach Sean Payton an itchy trigger finger if Williams struggles. Would much rather have the other two running backs at a much lower ADP.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
Elite pass-catching running back is being drafted at the R1/2 turn. We all love Amon-Ra St. Brown. We all love Sam LaPorta. We all think Jameson Williams is ready for a breakout season. David Montgomery still gets a substantial workload. Quarterback Jared Goff goes as the QB16. Which Lions player will fail to meet ADP? My vote is Gibbs.
Green Bay Packers: Jayden Reed, WR
Still the first Packers WR off the board, but not on the field in two-WR sets. Love Reed as a player, hate him at ADP.
Houston Texans: Joe Mixon, RB
Veteran running back changing teams with over 750 carries the past three seasons. Three elite wide receivers, a solid tight end and a rejuvenated Cam Akers breathing down his neck.
Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Using our FTN Splits Tool, the production for Pittman decreased in last year’s four-game sample with Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian Kirk, WR
I love the Jaguars as a post-hype sleeper, but similar to Jayden Reed, Kirk is not on the field in two-WR sets. Yet, he is the first Jacksonville wide receiver drafted.
Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce, TE
Still going too early in drafts to garner any interest. Saw lowest receiving yardage total (984 yards) since 2015 season, with only five touchdowns. Kelce turns 35 years old in October.
Las Vegas Raiders: Zamir White, RB
Beat reporter Adam Hill revealed the Raiders intention to give Brock Bowers goal-line carries on the FTN Team Preview Series. Alexander Mattison’s role very underrated.
Los Angeles Chargers: Kimani Vidal, RB
Vidal is only relevant if both Gus Edwards get hurt or underperforms. I like Vidal, but don’t see him even as the RB2 in this offense. Prefer Braelon Allen and Tank Bigsby at similar ADPs.
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams, RB
Blake Corum arrival, combined with limited athletic profile and now returning punts? No, thank you.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane, RB
There is a 60-pick difference between Achane and Raheem Mostert. Jaylen Wright still a presence. Make it make sense.
Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR
Two consecutive offseason incidents and coming off a season where he generated over 50% of his fantasy points on touchdown passes. Very hard to maintain.
New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Will share touches with Antonio Gibson and runs behind quite possibly the worst offensive line in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave, WR
Olave is a second-round draft pick in all formats with shaky quarterback play (Derek Carr) and the worst offensive line in the league per our Dan Fornek.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB
Late-round ADP, but tenuous of holds on the starting quarterback job. All other Giants players are at a decent ADP, and I believe Malik Nabers will produce based on volume alone.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers, WR
Rodgers turns 41 years old in December and has limited mobility. I’d rather have other options such as Geno Smith or even Bo Nix around that ADP.
Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert, TE
Per FTN StatsHub, Goedert has seen seven total end zone targets over the last three years, spanning 227 total chances.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pat Freiermuth, TE
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith used multiple tight ends with the starters in the preseason and implements a run-heavy preference historically.
San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR
Aiyuk’s contract drama meant limited preseason work, and he operates in a passing game with Deebo Samuel and (currently) no Trent Williams on the offensive line. I have no interest in the San Francisco wideout.
Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Lockett, WR
Veteran will pass the torch to Jaxon Smith-Njigba this year as Seattle’s clear WR2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans, WR
Evans is looking to tie Jerry Rice for the most consecutive (11) 1,000-yard seasons. But he is 31 years old and now has a legitimate target threat at WR3 with rookie Jalen McMillan.
Tennessee Titans: Calvin Ridley, WR
DeAndre Hopkins is a superior value at WR48, and Tyler Boyd will siphon targets as the WR3. Throw in elite pass-catching RB Tony Pollard, and I’m passing on Ridley more than any other Titans player.
Washington Commanders: Austin Ekeler, RB
Ekeler is a 29-year-old veteran running back who is changing teams, and behind versatile Brian Robinson Jr. on the depth chart.
