Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Fantasy football is a series of intense sprints crammed into a marathon. We fly through each week at breakneck speed, and it’s easy to lose sight of the finish line. Of course, we all know the end goal: to win. But getting to that goal isn’t easy, and many times we make that task even more difficult along the way.
It’s often hard to see for the forest for the trees in fantasy football. We get these one-week chunks of information, and recency bias takes over. Just last week, I heard from a number of folks that they dropped D’Andre Swift. He got off to a very slow start this season, and, of course, frustration levels were high. But dropping Swift didn’t work out very well. He’s still the lead back in Chicago and retains at least flex value.
You may have heard people in fantasy say, “process over results.” The above example is a great case for trusting your process. If you drafted a player like Swift, trust in why you drafted them. Sure, there are going to be down weeks along the way, but overreacting to bad games isn’t the path to fantasy success.
Each week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.
Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoons.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Baker Mayfield notched 2-plus passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown for the fourth time in his career last week. Over his last 12 games, including the postseason, Mayfield has thrown 25 touchdowns, the most of any player in the NFL during that span. His high-level play for the Bucs has him in the QB1 conversation this week.
Bucky Irving continued his hot start last week, rushing 10 times for 49 yards and scoring his first career rushing touchdown. Although the yardage wasn’t particularly high, the touchdown helped him outscore Rachaad White. The latter has struggled this season, averaging just 2.8 yards per rush. That’s the lowest of any player with at least 25 rushing attempts. White’s lack of efficiency on the ground doesn’t help his fantasy outlook. Irving isn’t the lead yet, though, so it’s best to consider both flex options.
In the passing game, Mike Evans notched eight receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown last week. He now has 97 career receiving touchdowns. He’s a little dinged up but is off the injury report and will play. He’s WR2 with WR1 upside. As for Chris Godwin, he’s one of three players this season to have 25-plus receptions and 300-plus receiving yards. The other two: Nico Collins and Malik Nabers Godwin’s high floor makes him a slightly better option than Evans.
On the other side, it hasn’t been the best start for Kirk Cousins. In 2023, he threw 18 touchdowns in just eight games. This year, he has just four in four games. We can’t trust him in starting lineups right now, but can he do enough to maintain value for Drake London?
To his credit, London has two receiving scores so far this season. He has a career best of four, so it’s a solid start. London is in the fringe WR1 conversation. As for Darnell Mooney, he currently leads the Falcons in receiving yards with 225, averaging a career-high 15.0 yards per reception. His ability to stretch the field gives him fantasy upside as a flex option. And yes, Kyle Pitts has no fantasy points last week. However, he also caught a 50-yarder the week before. There’s still upside with Pitts, and he remains a fringe TE1.
Despite 70 touches for Bijan Robinson this season, he’s seen just seven of them in the red zone. That’s frustrating. To make matters worse, the Flacons gave Tyler Allgeier extra run in Week 4. Robinson did lead the team’s running backs in snaps with 31 compared to 21 for Allgeier, but that’s much closer to a timeshare than we expected. Will it continue this week? Hell if I know, but for now Robinson remains an RB1. However, that will change if we get another timeshare this week.
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