Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s time for the Big Kahuna. The Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what should be one of the most interesting Super Bowl matchups in recent history. The Big Game may mark the end of our 2020 fantasy football journey, but there’s still a lot of fantasy left to be played with DFS and one-and-done leagues. Regardless of which format you’re in, we have you covered here at FTN. Like we do every week in the Report, let’s break down the game from all fantasy angles.
Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay
This is a mid-pack matchup for Patrick Mahomes, as the Bucs allowed 268.3 net passing yards and 1.8 passing scores per game in the regular season. Of course, we do have a recent sample to draw from with these two teams squaring off back in November. In that contest, Mahomes put up a hefty 462 yards. Not only was that his top mark of the season, but it’s also his second-best total of his career. That’s saying something right there. He’s also in the midst of a 30-game passing touchdown streak. Mahomes is set up for another massive day.
Of course, it helps to have Travis Kelce on the field. The all-world tight end has caught at least eight balls in nine of his last 10 contests. He’s also topped 100 yards seven times and scored nine times over that span. That insanely high level of production makes Kelce the best bet to lead all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points in the big game, though Tyreek Hill is a close second. Hill had a performance for the ages against the Bucs back in Week 12 with 13 catches on 15 targets for 269 yards and three scores. Hill had his way with Carlton Davis, though we shouldn’t expect Tampa to defend him the same way in this contest as Jamel Dean didn’t play in Week 12.
Beyond Hill, the Chiefs do have some issues at wideout, as Demarcus Robinson is currently on the Reserve/COVID-19 list due to a close contact. The good news is that he can still clear the protocol in enough time to still suit up. Veteran Sammy Watkins has been dealing with a calf injury down the stretch and is looking to be questionable. With these question marks, it’s easy to assume that Mecole Hardman would stand to benefit the most, but that line of thinking would ignore what the Chiefs did in the Conference Championship. With Watkins out, Kansas City actually used Byron Pringle ahead of both Robinson and Hardman. Here’s the Chiefs routes run from that game: Hill 37, Pringle 31, Robinson 30, Hardman 17. Pringle is a sneaky play this week.
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Things didn’t quite work out how we thought in the Chiefs backfield this season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire came storming out of the gate in Week 1, but it became clear Andy Reid didn’t want to use a bell cow back this season. Edwards-Helaire figures to split a bulk of the work with Darrel Williams. Le'Veon Bell will also be sprinkled in. The backfield looked a bit different in Week 12, as Edwards-Helaire played 47-of-79 snaps, with Bell seeing 24 and Williams just eight. But Williams has surged down the stretch and has touched the ball a combined 31 times in the Chiefs two playoff wins. Of course, Edwards-Helaire was recovering from an ankle injury that sidelined him for a month. He should be closer to 100% in this one. That said, expect the Chiefs to still split the work close to 50:50 between Edwards-Helaire and Williams against a tough Tampa run defense that allowed a league-low 59.9 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields in 2020.
Tom Brady has been terrific over the second half of the season. The GOAT has proven the naysayers wrong with a league-league 10.4-yard average depth of target from Week 10 on. During that stretch, he averages 6.5 passing attempts of 20-plus yards, which also paces the league. Brady threw for 345 yards and three scores in the Bucs Week 12 loss to Kansas City. Like Mahomes, matchup isn’t a major factor for Brady, as the Chiefs were the No. 15 matchup in the regular season. So we really can expect more of the same with Brady pushing the ball vertically in this contest.
The vertical game figures to benefit Mike Evans, who caught two scores against the Chiefs back in Week 12. Evans caught 13 touchdowns in the regular season and has found pay dirt in each of the Bucs’ last two postseason games. While the Chiefs are a tough matchup for wide receivers on paper — they ranked as the second-worst in the regular season — Evans still has major upside in this one given his downfield ability and high-value targets in the red zone. Evans saw 14 end zone targets in the regular season and both of his playoff scores have come on end zone targets.
Chris Godwin has also seen two end zone looks in the postseason, though he was unable to convert either for scores. Still, the Bucs slot receiver has finally gotten healthy after a string of injuries throughout the regular season. Godwin was especially effective against the Chiefs back in November, catching 8-of-9 targets for 97 yards. Look for Brady to again attack Kansas City with a healthy dose of Godwin.
With Antonio Brown’s status very much up in the air, we could see a good bit of Scott Miller with some Tyler Johnson sprinkled in on the Bucs three-wide sets. Before we get too carried away here, it’s important to note that Tampa has used 12-personnel on over 50% of their offensive plays in the playoffs. With two tight ends on the field, we won’t see a third wide receiver. Likewise, with Miller and Johnson splitting time, neither will see the field enough to make a big impact. In the Conference Championship Miller played just 27-of-64 snaps and Johnson saw just 19 snaps with Brown sidelined.
This high rate of 2-TE sets has also had an impact on Rob Gronkowski, as he’s been tasking with staying in to block more on passing plays. In the regular season, Gronk averaged 2.8 catches per game. He’s caught just two balls in the Bucs’ three playoff wins. Don’t expect that to change in this one. On the other hand, Cameron Brate has been much more involved in the postseason with 11 catches in those three games. Brate won’t play a ton of snaps, but he will draw targets when he’s on the field.
We finally have some clarity on the Bucs backfield, as Tampa has leaned on Leonard Fournette in the playoffs. He’s touched the ball 62 times in the Bucs’ three postseason contests and is surprisingly fantasy’s top-scoring non-quarterback in the playoffs. Fournette has found the end zone in all three games and has been especially involved in the passing game with 14 postseason catches. Better yet, his matchup isn’t that bad with the Chiefs allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs in the regular season. Opposing backfields averaged 4.52 yards per attempt against Kansas City this season. While Ronald Jones has seen double-digit carries in each of the Bucs last two playoff games, he only played 21 snaps in the Divisional Round and 17 in the Conference Championship game. Jones doesn’t figure to be a major factor in this contest.
