Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills game for Week 8.
Week 8 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
BUF -8.5, O/U 42
Pace: TB: 26.3 sec/snap (9th), BUF: 27.4 sec/snap (19th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- The Bills ran 12 personnel just under 17% of the time in Week 7.
- That was way down from their season-long rate of almost 40%.
- Dawson Knox (wrist) is now going to miss some time.
- Expect a huge uptick in 11 personnel from Buffalo.
- Dalton Kincaid saw a season-high 22% target share last week.
- Josh Allen has 11 designed rush attempts this year.
- He had 24 designed attempts through seven games last season.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield continues to play well enough to warrant weekly QB2 consideration. Sunday, he completed 27-of-42 passes for 275 yards, one touchdown and one interception, adding 32 rushing yards. A few weeks ago, this would absolutely be a matchup to avoid and while I still don’t view Mayfield as a great fantasy option this week, Buffalo’s defense remains depleted. With all of the injuries to this unit as of late, the Bills defense have allowed a league-worst 8.0 third down conversions per game over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence have completed nearly 72% of passes against the Bills during that span. Mayfield remains a mid-range QB2 Thursday night.
Running Back
Once again, Rachaad White was inefficient on the ground, but he made up for it by setting season-highs in receptions (6), targets (6) and receiving yards (65). He was on the field for 78% of the snaps, giving White a snap share of at least 75% in all but one game this season. His 78% snap share for the season ranks third among all running backs, while he has also run a route on 72% of Tampa Bay’s dropbacks, tied for the highest rate in the league at the position. White’s 4.1 yards per touch ranks 42nd among all running backs, while he is also averaging -1.17 yards over expected per attempt, the third-worst mark in football. White has yet to record a breakaway run this season, so you really hope the usage in the passing game remains. If it does, he could be productive yet again, as the Bills are surrendering the ninth-most targets (7.1) and sixth-most receiving yards (43.3) per game to opposing backfields on the year. Buffalo remains a boom/bust run defense, as 15.1% of the runs against the Bills have gained 10-plus yards, the second-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, no team has allowed more yards after contact per rush than Buffalo. White remains a volume-based RB2.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans found the end zone again last week, connecting on a 40-yard touchdown. Evans is now sporting a 25% target share this season to go along with a 38% share of Tampa Bay’s air yards. He has seen at least eight targets in every full game he has played so far this season. Buffalo’s pass defense is far more vulnerable since the losses of Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano. I have Evans as a high-end WR2 against Dane Jackson, who has allowed 12 catches on 15 targets for 108 yards and a score on 134 pass coverage snaps this season,
Chris Godwin, meanwhile, continues to demonstrate a very solid floor. He caught 6-of-12 targets for 66 yards in Week 7, giving him at least five catches for 50 yards in all but one game so far this season. We continue to see at least a few more upside targets, as Godwin’s slot rate has fallen from 73% in 2022 to 33% this season under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. With no teams on a bye this week, Godwin is a low-end WR2, though the floor should be solid.
Tight End
Cade Otton continues to play a ton, logging over 90% of the snaps in every game so far this season. He has also run a route on 83% of Tampa Bay’s dropbacks this season, the fifth-highest rate among all tight ends. However, it hasn’t led to much fantasy production, as Otton has just a 12% target share and 12% target per route run rate. Buffalo’s defense is banged up, but they still haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end since the 2021 campaign.
Quarterback
The Bills offense once again got off to a slow start, making it three straight weeks. But once again, Josh Allen got there, throwing for 265 yards and two touchdown and adding a rushing touchdown. Allen is the QB2 in fantasy, despite the drop in rushing production this season. Through seven weeks in 2022, Allen had 24 designed rush attempts. But so far this season, he has just 11 designed runs through the first seven weeks. It is an element Buffalo’s offense needs to bring back, especially given how much they are struggling right now. Allen faces an aggressive Tampa Bay defense that is blitzing 38.6% of the time this year, the fourth-highest rate in football. Allen, meanwhile, is completing 62% of his passes with four touchdowns against the blitz this season.
Running Back
For the second straight week, Latavius Murray drew the start at running back and limited the upside of James Cook a bit. Cook still ended up with 55% of the snaps to Murray’s 42%, while out-touching him 16-6. However, Cook has now played just 56% of the snaps over the last two weeks, while handling just 30% of long down and distance and 33% of two-minute snaps during that span. That isn’t exactly ideal, as Buffalo continues to trust Murray in passing situations. Cook is a low-end RB2 given this usage and when Buffalo gets in close, it has rarely been him to get the football, especially if Allen starts to run the football more.
Wide Receiver
This entire Buffalo offense continues to run through Stefon Diggs, who scored his sixth touchdown of the season last week. On the year, Diggs is now sporting a 33% target share and is being targeted on 30% of his routes this season. His 58 first-read targets are the fifth most in football, and Diggs should remain busy against this blitz-heavy defense. Diggs has seen a whopping 36.2% target share against the blitz this season (5th) and faces a team that has given it up to opposing top wideouts. Tampa Bay is coughing up 89.3 receiving yards per game to opposing no.1 wide receivers this season, the eighth-most in football. Diggs has either 100 yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season and more than likely does it again Thursday.
Gabe Davis has struggled a bit lately, but this could be a more favorable matchup for him. Davis has always been more productive against zone coverage, so it didn’t come as a surprise to see him struggle against the man-heavy Patriots last week. Since the start of last season, Davis is sporting a 15.3% target share against man coverage but an 18% target share against zone coverage. His target share against the blitz this year is only around 15% but we know he doesn’t command a ton of targets to begin with. Regardless of matchup, Davis will pretty much always be a boom/bust WR3 in fantasy. The Bucs, for what it’s worth, have allowed four touchdown passes of 20-plus air yards, the third-most in football.
Tight End
With Dawson Knox out with a wrist injury, it should be the Dalton Kincaid show going forward. And perhaps the breakout began last week when the rookie caught all eight of his targets for 75 yards. He ran a route on 63% of dropbacks — so far this season, Kincaid has a very strong 21% target share with Knox off the field. To put that number into perspective, a 21% target share over the course of the season would rank fifth among all tight ends. With Knox and Quintin Morris out, Buffalo’s offense is going to shift. On the year, Buffalo has run 12 personnel (2 TE) almost 40% of the time. But last weekend, that rate fell all the way to just under 17%. The Bills will likely play a ton of 11 personnel going forward and I’d bet Kincaid is second on this team in targets. Tampa Bay has yet to allow a tight end to score this season, but Kincaid is still a top-10 play for me this week and likely going forward.
