The Read Option, Week 7: Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens game for Week 7.

Week 7 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

BAL -3, O/U 42
Pace: BAL: 27.6 sec/snap (20th), DET: 28.2 sec/snap (27th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• Zay Flowers has been in pre-snap motion 20% of the time this season.
• His 70 plays in motion before the snap are the second most in all of football.
• The Lions are allowing 0.74 yards before contact per rush this season, the third-best mark in the league.
• Since Week 9 of 2022, only three running backs have reached 60 rushing yards against the Lions.
• Jared Goff is completing 75% of his passes with 5 TDs off play-action this season.
• Baltimore is allowing a 75% completion rate off play-action.

Quarterback

Jared Goff is truly playing the quarterback position as well as just about anyone in football right now. Among qualified quarterbacks, Goff ranks fifth in passing yards (1,617), fifth in touchdowns (11), first in adjusted completion rate (82.3%) and third in passer rating (105.1). From a fantasy perspective, he is the QB5, posting three weeks inside the top-five. Goff is now averaging 0.55 fantasy points per dropback (eighth) and has even been getting it done away from home, which wasn’t the case last year. Don’t get me wrong, he is still much better at home, but Goff is no longer someone you can’t start on the road. He’ll face the Ravens this week, who are allowing 67% of the touchdowns scored against them to come through the air. Baltimore is also allowing a 75% completion rate off play-action, which bodes well for Goff, who is completing 75% of his passes with 5 TDs off play-action this season.

Running Back

Detroit’s backfield remains a revolving door. After dominating the usage and emerging as a top-10 fantasy running back, David Montgomery is now expected to miss some time with a rib injury. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has been out the last two weeks with a hamstring injury but is on track to return Sunday. Meanwhile, Craig Reynolds, who played 61% of the snaps last week, missed practice Wednesday. If both Reynolds and Gibbs are active Sunday, I’d imagine we see a similar split that we saw between Montgomery and Gibbs to start the season. The Lions clearly aren’t ready to give Gibbs the lion’s share (pun intended) of the work, especially because he hasn’t been trustworthy in pass protection. He also has only played two snaps inside the 5-yard line this season and when we saw Montgomery leave Week 2 in the fourth quarter, Reynolds took all of the short-yardage work. Gibbs did see 17 carries in that game and as long as he is healthy, should see 14-17 touches again this week. He’s a low-end RB2, while Reynolds is a viable flex play if he suits up as well.

Wide Receiver

You are starting Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is coming off career-highs in receptions (12), targets (15) and receiving yards (124) Sunday. He has a healthy 25% target share on the season, while drawing a target on 27% of his routes. After being tackled inside the 5-yard line six times last season, the third most in football, St. Brown has already scored three touchdowns in five games this year. Baltimore has actually been a top-three defense at limiting opposing slot wide receivers this season, a step up from 2022, but St. Brown will continue to offer a strong weekly floor.

Jameson Williams, meanwhile, showcased his upside last week, hauling in a 45-yard touchdown. Williams made his season debut in Week 5 in a game where St. Brown was sidelined. In that contest, Williams ran a route on 50% of dropbacks while playing 47% of snaps. However, with St. Brown back Sunday, Williams saw his role decrease, as he played just 23% of the snaps, while running a route on 19% of Detroit’s dropbacks. Continue to keep him on rosters but if you are starting Williams, you are going to have to get incredibly lucky.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta is coming off his worst game of the season, catching just 4-of-11 targets for 36 yards. LaPorta was dealing with a calf injury during the week, but it didn’t limit his involvement or playing time whatsoever. He is still on pace to have the best fantasy finish from a rookie tight end in over 20 years, as LaPorta is currently the TE2 in fantasy, posting four top-eight finishes. His 23% target share is the highest rate among all tight ends, while his 25% target per route run rate ranks second at the position. 

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson has suddenly failed to reach 20 fantasy points in each of his last two games, though it isn’t because he’s been playing poorly. In Week 5, Baltimore couldn’t catch a pass. This past weekend, the Ravens just couldn’t score in the red zone. Jackson is still playing at an elite level, once again providing that immense floor — he’s averaging 54.5 rushing yards per game, the most among quarterbacks. Jackson’s 69.9% completion rate is the highest of his career, as the Ravens have focused more on the short/intermediate passing game under Todd Monken. Jackson’s 8.2-yard aDOT is the lowest of his career. Look for Jackson to bounce back against a Lions pass funnel. 77.3% of the yardage against Detroit this year has come through the air, the third-highest rate in football.

Running Back

Gus Edwards continues to operate as the 1A in this Baltimore backfield, while Justice Hill gets 8-12 touches as the 1B. And despite the preseason hype regarding the potentially pass-heavy Ravens, Baltimore is still sporting the league’s highest rush rate in neutral gamescripts at 50.5%. That is allowing both Edwards and Hill to post flex numbers most weeks. Hill returned from a toe injury in Week 4 and since then, he has played 35% of the snaps, while handling 22% of the team’s rushing attempts. Edwards, meanwhile, has played 59% of the snaps and handled 51% of the rush attempts during that stretch. If you are struggling with bye weeks and injuries, Edwards is going to get enough work to warrant a lineup spot, though I’d temper expectations. The Lions have transformed into an elite run defense since the second half of last season. In fact, since Week 9 of 2022, only three running backs have reached 60 rushing yards against the Lions. And so far this season, Detroit is allowing 0.74 yards before contact per rush this season, the third-best mark in the league.

Ravens RBs since Week 4

Wide Receiver

Zay Flowers caught his first career touchdown last week in London, while hauling in six passes for 50 yards. Flowers was targeted eight times, giving him at least eight targets in four of six games this season. He is sporting an awesome 28% target share on the season, as the Ravens continue to treat the rookie as their clear WR1. Per FTN Data, Flowers has been in pre-snap motion 20% of the time this season, while his 70 plays in motion before the snap are the second most in all of football. Detroit has shifted to more zone coverage this season, running it 69% of the time, a top-five rate in the league. Flowers, meanwhile, is sporting a healthy 31.5% target share against zone coverage this season. Continue to start him as a low-end WR2.

Tight End

While he didn’t find the end zone last week, Mark Andrews did give you four catches for 69 yards. He’s had at least 65 yards in each of his last three games, though the presence of Flowers seems to have resulted in fewer massive target games from the All-Pro tight end. Since making his debut in Week 2, Andrews has four top-12 finishes in five games, while finishing as a top-eight tight end three times. He gets a stellar matchup this week against a Detroit defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (14.7), second-most receptions (6.5), third-most targets (8.7) and fourth-most receiving yards (62.7) per game to opposing tight ends.