Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out the breakdown of the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers game for Week 6 from guest writer Adam Strangis.
Week 6 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lions -3, O/U 43.5
Pace: DET: 28 sec/snap (26th), TB: 26.4 sec/snap (11th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Tampa is blitzing at the third-highest rate in the league (38.3%)
- Detroit is allowing the third-lowest rushing yards per attempt (3.3 yards)
- The Lions are third in total defensive DVOA
- Tampa Bay has targeted their receivers at the third-highest rate in the league (69.7%)
Quarterback
There likely should be at least a little bit of hesitation with starting Jared Goff this week. It does appear that he’ll get receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown back in the lineup, but this game is in Tampa, and Goff has had issues on the road dating back to last season.
Even if you’re not the biggest believer in that, the blitz rate from Tampa is of note as well. Goff has been blitzed 34.3% of the time and while the completion rate is 64.8%, Goff has thrown three interceptions compared to two touchdowns. Tampa is also playing one of the lowest rates of man coverage and that’s an issue. Goff has a 139.3 passer rating when he faces man but it plummets to 72.2 when he faces zone coverages. Goff is no better than a QB2 this week with some of the red flags in this matchup.
Running Back
It does remain to be seen if Jahmyr Gibbs can make it back after missing Week 5, but even if he does, it sure looks like David Montgomery is the man in this backfield. Montgomery has missed a game himself but he’s fourth in carries, fourth in touchdowns, and seventh in rushing yards. He’s not giving you much in the passing game with just nine total targets but he has 25 red zone attempts. The Buccaneers are 21st in DVOA against the run and they have stuffed the sixth-fewest percentage of rushing attempts. The volume for Montgomery makes him a high-end RB2 with an upside for an RB1 week if he has good luck scoring touchdowns. If Gibbs plays, he’s no more than a flex as he’s yet to have more than 12 touches in a game where Montgomery played the entire game.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown is back at practice so he should be in line to return this week and it’s interesting to note that he’s playing fewer snaps in the slot than ever before. He’s only at 40.2%, but that hasn’t hurt his target share (28.2%) or air yards share (32.1%). Both of those numbers are the highest of his career and since he’s moving around the formation, there’s not likely to be one corner on him to try and contain him.
The other group of receivers is tougher to parse through since Jameson Williams came back into the lineup in Week 5. It appears as though Williams and Josh Reynolds are going to be the second and third receivers in the offense but neither is that trustworthy this week. Williams has a pedigree but only saw three targets in 28 snaps and Reynolds is under 16% for his target share. If you don’t love Goff this week, it’s difficult to see him supporting multiple receivers and the tight end.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta is an automatic start at this point of the season — he’s among the top 10 in almost every major category for tight ends. He’s sporting a 20.5% target share and a 19.3% air yards share, not to mention he’s tied for the most red zone targets on the team. Tampa hasn’t allowed a lot of production to the position but they have faced over seven targets per game and LaPorta has carved out a role that is the second fiddle behind St. Brown.
Quarterback
This could be a sneaky spot for Baker Mayfield, who has had something of a renaissance in Tampa. He’s thrown for seven touchdowns compared to two interceptions although we should note that Detroit is eighth in DVOA against the pass. Where Mayfield could shine is when he faces zone coverage, as he has a 74.4% completion rate and a 101.6 passer rating. The Lions are playing the sixth-lowest rate of man coverage so far this season, which is a nice bonus for Mayfield. He’s already 11th in points per dropback and 10th in touchdowns despite already having a bye week. Mayfield should be a strong QB2 and an interesting streaming candidate in this matchup.
Running Back
It could be a difficult game for Rachaad White, although the volume has not been in question through his first four games. He’s taken up 69.2% of the running back carries for Tampa, and he’s running a route on 56.7% of the attempts. It’s tough to recommend to sit him but the matchup is not ideal, to be sure. Detroit has allowed the third-fewest points per game against running backs and White is only 40th in yards per touch. He’s logging at least 70% of the snaps so Ke’Shawn Vaughn is not left with much to do.
Wide Receiver
The duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to dominate the passing game for Tampa, both carrying a target share of over 25%. The next closest receiver is Deven Thompkins at 9.2% so there are only two players to consider playing for fantasy. Godwin is an interesting case since he’s moved out of the slot at the highest rate in the past three seasons, lining up there only 36% of the time. He’s still working the short and intermediate areas of the field with an 8.7-yard aDOT and he also has seven red zone targets compared to three for Evans. Those seven red zone targets for Godwin rank third among receivers, so we should expect him to have better performances than the WR39 in points per game moving forward.
Evans tends to be more of a fit with the style of play from Mayfield since Mayfield tends to go for broke and that’s part of the reason Evans has an aDOT of over 13.0 yards. The lack of red zone targets is a bit surprising but facing Jerry Jacobs shouldn’t be much of an issue for Evans. He’s allowing 11.3 air yards per target and he’s chewed up zone coverages for a 146.3 passer rating. The cavaet here is the Bucs are not having Evans really run intil Friday. Jenna Laine of ESPN has this quote from coach Todd Bowles, so having a backup plan is smart –
Tight End
He’s likely best served just as a GPP dart throw in DFS, but Cade Otton does get a strong matchup, at least based on what the Lions have given up so far. Only the Jets have allowed more points per game to the position although Detroit is also 12th in DVOA against tight ends. Otton is currently third on the team in target share at 12.6% but he’s the security blanket with just a 4.5-yard aDOT. Otton does only have two red zone targets but he’s logged at least 91% of the snaps in every game. He’s also seen his routes jump from 64.6% of the team’s attempts in 2022 to 87.9% this season.
