Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders game for Week 5.
Week 5 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
WAS -7, O/U 44.5
Pace: CHI: 26.3 sec/snap (13th), WAS: 27.3 sec/snap (24th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- The Bears are targeting RBs 26.7% of the time this season, the third-highest rate in the league.
- Washington has allowed the most touchdowns (5) and passing yards (410) on passes that travel 20-plus air yards.
- DJ Moore has accounted for 39.1% of Chicago’s air yards this season (12th).
- His 8 deep targets are the third most in the NFL.
- Brian Robinson has handled 83.3% of Washington’s carries from inside the 5-yard line (seventh).
Quarterback
It may have been against the worst defense in football, but Justin Fields looked great against Denver, completing 28-of-35 passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns. The deep ball was there for Fields, who completed 4-of-5 passes of 20-plus yards for 80 yards and a pair of touchdowns. We have seen a drop in designed rushes for Fields, who accounted for 20% of the Bears’ designed runs last year, but that rate has dropped to about 17% this season. Week 4 was very encouraging for Fields, who now gets an intriguing matchup against the Commanders. Washington has surrendered the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers this season (32.8), while three of the four quarterbacks to face them have rushed for at least 35 yards. Washington is also very susceptible to the deep ball, as they have allowed the most touchdowns (5) and passing yards (410) on passes that travel 20-plus air yards this season. Building momentum, Fields is my QB8 for Week 5.
Running Back
Chicago’s backfield had been a bit of a committee for most of the year, but that changed Sunday. Khalil Herbert dominated, logging a season-high 78% of the snaps against the Broncos. He handled 22-of-28 running back touches (78.5), accumulating 122 total yards and a touchdown. The Bears getting out to a 28-7 lead certainly helped but Herbert also played 6-of-7 third downs in the game. Chicago went back to their usual rotation at running back, playing Herbert for two drives followed by one for Roschon Johnson. While it certainly isn’t a guarantee that this trend continues going forward, Herbert has moved up to the low-end RB2 range, especially with four teams on a bye. The Commanders are currently allowing the seventh-most points per drive in the league (2.52) and have now allowed a running back to find the end zone in three consecutive games. Herbert caught a touchdown pass last week and could continue to see solid pass game usage, as Bears are targeting RBs 26.7% of the time this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the league. Johnson, meanwhile, remains a hold and a desperation flex if you are dealing with injuries and bye weeks.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore had his best game as a Bear last week, hauling in 8-of-9 targets for 131 yards and a touchdown. He’s now found the end zone in consecutive games and could keep it going against a beatable Washington secondary. The Commanders have allowed 100 yards to each of the last two top wideouts to face them and are allowing about 83 receiving yards per game to opposing number-one receivers. They have also allowed a wideout to reach 100 yards in three straight games and like we mentioned, Washington has really struggled to defend the deep ball. That could bode well for Moore, who has accounted for 39.1% of Chicago’s air yards this season, the 12th-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, his eight deep targets rank top-three among wideouts. Moore has now seen a 30% target share in back-to-back games and sets up as a solid WR2 Thursday.
While he didn’t have a huge game, Darnell Mooney caught four passes for 51 yards Sunday. And with Chase Claypool no longer part of the team’s plans, Mooney ran a route on a season-high 90% of Chicago’s dropbacks. He’s a middling flex play, though this is a strong matchup for him to have his best game of the year.
Tight End
Cole Kmet benefited from Fields’ huge day, catching seven passes for 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Kmet has quietly seen a target share north of 20% in three of four games this season, while his 22% target per route run rate ranks top-five among all qualified tight ends. Washington has been good against opposing tight ends this season, surrendering the fewest fantasy points per game to the position (5.3). However, you can throw on the Commanders and the tight end position is a mess. Kmet is my TE11 this week.
Quarterback
After a disastrous game in Week 3, Sam Howell bounced back and impressed against the Eagles, passing for 290 yards and a touchdown and adding 40 rushing yards. There are a lot of really strong streaming quarterbacks this week, including Howell, who faces Chicago’s brutal defense. The Bears are allowing the second-most points (2.83) and fourth-most yards (37.4) per drive, while opposing offenses are scoring points on 48.8% of drives against this unit, the fourth-highest rate in football. Chicago’s 13.7% pressure rate is the third lowest in the league, which is massive for Howell, who has been pressured on over 38% of dropbacks this season. The quarterbacks that have faced the Bears this season have finished as the QB3, QB18, QB5 and QB9 in fantasy. If you are hurting at the position in Week 5, Howell is a very strong replacement candidate.
I’d start Howell over: Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
Running Back
Despite the tough matchup, Brian Robinson found the end zone last week and could have scored twice if he didn’t fumble at the goal line. Still, it was a solid day for Robinson, who has been Washington’s unquestioned goal line running back. Through four weeks, he has handled 83.3% of the Commanders’ rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line, the seventh-highest rate in the league. We did see him lose a piece of the running back carry share last week, as Antonio Gibson saw a season-high 16 carries. But Robinson is still averaging a solid 16.5 touches per game and is now a home favorite against a Chicago defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The Bears are allowing two total touchdowns per game to opposing running backs and have been an awful red zone defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 80% of trips (third worst). Robinson is a must-start running back Thursday.
Wide Receiver
I’m sure it wasn’t how you drew it up, but Terry McLaurin scored over 22 fantasy points Sunday. And even if you remove his fumble recovery touchdown, McLaurin still caught 8-of-10 targets for 86 yards. After seeing very close usage last year, McLaurin has now been the clear lead wide receiver for Washington this season, leading the position in target share in three-of-four games. Consider him a rock-solid WR2 ahead of a matchup with rookie defensive back Tyrique Stevenson, who has allowed 13 catches on 17 targets for 181 yards and three touchdowns in coverage so far this season.
Jahan Dotson found the end zone on the final play of regulation last week, saving what would have been another awful day. The nine targets were encouraging but it has been a slow start for Dotson, who hasn’t eclipsed 40 yards yet this year, while posting fewer than 30 yards three times. His average depth of target is way down this season, as Dotson has lined up in the slot 50% of the time in 2023, compared to just 26.3% in 2022. Against one of the worst defenses in football, Dotson is a fine flex play.
Tight End
Logan Thomas returned from a concussion last week, also returning to his usual role. Thomas logged just under 80% of the snaps, while running a route on 77% of dropbacks. He caught all three of his targets for 41 yards and for the year, Washington is still targeting the tight end position 25.2% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Thomas is a solid streaming option against a Bears defense allowing a completion rate over 70%.
