NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers game for Week 4.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
DET -1, O/U 45
Pace: DET: 27.4 sec/snap (22nd), GB: 26.8 sec/snap (18th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Sam LaPorta’s 27% target per route run rate ranks third among qualified tight ends through three weeks.
- His 18 receptions are the most by a tight end in their first three career games.
- LaPorta has seen 24% of the Lions’ targets on third or fourth down.
- Jahmyr Gibbs played a season-high 60% of the snaps last week.
- He split third-down snaps with Craig Reynolds.
- 13.5% of the runs against Green Bay have gained 10-plus yards, the seventh-highest rate in football.
- Opposing RBs are averaging 8.7 targets per game against the Packers, the third most in the league.
Quarterback
Jared Goff posted consecutive strong outings at home, which isn’t too much of a surprise. Dating back to last season, Goff is now averaging right around 21 fantasy points per game at home, compared to 13 fantasy points per game away from home. He’s thrown just seven touchdown passes away from home since the start of last year. The Lions travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers Thursday night, a defense that has been strong against the pass to start the season, but have also faced the Falcons, Bears and Saints. Green Bay also ranks eighth in the league in pressure rate (28.3%) and in four games against this defense since 2021, Goff is averaging just 211.3 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 14.7 fantasy points per contest. Goff is a mid-range QB2 Thursday.
Running Back
With David Montgomery (thigh) sidelined last week, Jahmyr Gibbs saw an expanded role. He played a season (and obviously career) high in snaps at 60%, handling 18 of Detroit’s 26 running back touches. Gibbs rushed 17 times for 80 yards, while adding just one catch for two yards. While the volume looked better, the touches Gibbs saw were less exciting, honestly. Detroit ran him up the middle a lot, while Craig Reynolds actually played a role on passing downs. The two split 12 snaps on third down, while Reynolds played all four snaps in the two-minute drill. Gibbs did see three goal line snaps, which is encouraging, but we want him getting the ball in space. If Montgomery remains sidelined this week, it appears as if Gibbs should be in line for 17-20 touches in a solid matchup. 13.5% of the runs against Green Bay have gained 10-plus yards, the 7th-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, running backs have been active in the passing game against the Packers, averaging 8.7 targets per game, third in the league. Gibbs is a high-end RB2 if Montgomery can’t return.
If he does return, however, I am starting Montgomery as a low-end RB2. It is possible he is somewhat limited on a short week but we just don’t have the luxury of sitting running backs getting 15-plus touches and all of the goal line work right now.
Per Next Gen Stats
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown was dealing with a toe injury throughout the week, but he played and was not limited at all Sunday. St. Brown was on the field for 94% of the snaps, while running a route on every single Detroit dropback. He caught 9-of-12 targets for 102 yards, giving him two straight games with 102 receiving yards. St. Brown is now just shy of a 30% target per route run rate, averaging a healthy nine targets per game. He underwhelmed in two meetings with the Packers last year, but it wasn’t as if he was shadowed by Jaire Alexander, as he doesn’t move into the slot, where St. Brown lines up about 54% of the time. Of course, Alexander was out last week and if he doesn’t play, that certainly doesn’t hurt the matchup for St. Brown. He remains a top-10 fantasy wideout.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta has arrived, and you are starting him every single week. LaPorta had his breakout game Sunday, hauling in 8-of-11 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. It was his third straight game with at least five receptions and his 18 total receptions are the most by a tight end in their first three career games in NFL history. LaPorta’s 27% target per route run rate ranks third among qualified tight ends through three weeks, while he has also seen 24% of the Lions’ targets on third or fourth down. The rookie has played 80% of the snaps, while running a route on over 81% of Detroit’s passing plays. Green Bay has been good against opposing tight ends so far this season, but none has been as involved in their team’s offense as LaPorta is. He’s a must-start player.
Quarterback
I told everyone to sit Jordan Love last week. For much of that game, it looked like the right call. Honestly, I still think the process was right, as Love averaged under 6.0 yards per attempt, while completing 50% of his passes for 259 yards, one touchdown and an interception. But he added 39 rushing yards and an additional score on the ground, helping him finish as a top-eight quarterback once again. His 7.3% passing touchdown rate is second in the league but Love is difficult to pinpoint right now. On one hand, he is completing just 54.9% of his passes from a clean pocket this year, one of the lowest rates in the league. But he’s also been without his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson. He’ll look to keep things going against a Detroit defense that is playing pretty well but are still banged up, especially in the secondary. We’ll see how much the Lions blitz and play man coverage this week, which has varied to start the year. Against the blitz so far, Love ranks last in completion rate (42.9%), while averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt. Love is on the QB1/QB2 borderline for Week 4.
Running Back
If Aaron Jones (hamstring) returns this week, you start him.
If Aaron Jones remains out, I still might start him over AJ Dillon.
Dillon has been absolutely dreadful in two starts this season, (15-55-0, 11-33-0). Through three weeks, he’s avoided two tackles and has one explosive run, while just over 51% of his runs have gained two or fewer yards. He’s been so inefficient, and the Lions’ run defense has been awesome since the second half of last season. And so far this season, the Lions are allowing just 3.2 yards per rush, while just 24.2% of the yardage against this defense has come on the ground, the sixth-lowest rate in football. There is a chance we see a bit of a limited role from Jones, who would be returning from a hamstring injury on a short week. But we’ve seen Jones post RB1 production year after year on 12-15 touches anyway, while his pass game usage should be there.
Wide Receiver
Christian Watson has yet to play this season, as he recovers from a hamstring injury of his own. He said he intends to play this week, but I’d almost guarantee he’s on a snap count, especially after Green Bay put Romeo Doubs on a snap count in Week 1. I’d really be hesitant to put Watson right back into my lineup this ,week and even if he plays, I still think Doubs and Jayden Reed are viable flex plays in deeper formats. Doubs got back on track last week, catching 5-of-12 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. Doubs now ranks fourth in the league with four targets from inside the 10-yard line, seeing about 45% of Green Bay’s targets from that area of the field. He’ll see primary coverage from Jerry Jacobs, who has allowed 15 catches on 21 targets for 135 yards and a pair of touchdowns in coverage.
Reed, meanwhile, continues to be used in motion a ton, which has helped him post a TPRR rate of 24%, the highest rate on the team. Even if Watson returns, Reed’s role won’t drastically change since he has been mostly playing in 11 personnel from the slot (72.5%). Reed has seen a healthy 15 targets over the past two weeks and could post top-36 numbers again against a Detroit defense that is surrendering around nine targets per game to opposing slot wide receivers so far.
Tight End
While Luke Musgrave hasn’t had the Sam LaPorta breakout game yet, it is on the horizon. It probably should have happened last week, as Musgrave caught 6-of-8 targets for 49 yards, but Love missed him once again for a wide-open long touchdown. On the year, Musgrave has run a route on 83% of dropbacks, while playing 83% of snaps. His 10.9 average depth of target ranks third among all tight ends so given his usage, route participation and downfield looks, it is only a matter of time before Musgrave breaks out. It could be this Thursday against a Lions defense that ranks bottom-10 in yards per game allowed to opposing tight ends.
