Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns game for Week 17.
Week 17 Fantasy Football Breakdown: New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon (announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit)
CLE -7, O/U 36.5
Pace: NYJ: 25.3 sec/snap (3rd), CLE: 26.0 sec/snap (7th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback, Cleveland ranks fifth in neutral-script pass rate (64.9%).
- During that same span, they lead the NFL in early down pass rate (66.1%).
- In four starts, Flacco is averaging 43.7 pass attempts per game.
- Since Week 8, Breece Hall leads all running backs in targets (66) and ranks second in target share (20.5%).
Quarterback
Zach Wilson, who missed last week’s game with a concussion, has already been ruled out for Thursday’s contest. That means Trevor Siemian will make his second consecutive start for the Jets. Against Washington last weekend, Siemian completed 27-of-49 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while averaging a comical 4.4 yards per attempt. 18.4% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage and that was against the worst pass defense in all of football. Now he’ll face a much tougher Cleveland defense that is coughing up a league-best 3.5 yards per play when at home this season. Thanks, but no thanks.
Running Back
Breece Hall had a career game Sunday, rushing for 95 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, while adding an insane 12 receptions for an additional 96 yards. Hall was targeted a whopping 16 times, the seventh-most by a running back in NFL history. This offense continues to go through Garrett Wilson and Hall, who also set a career-high in snap share last week (75%). Since Week 8, Hall has more targets at the running back position than anyone (66), while his 20.5% target share during that span ranks second. It was great to see Hall finally find room on the ground, as it was his first game with even 50 rushing yards since Week 9. Of course, the Jets offensive line hasn’t been great, as Hall has been hit behind the line of scrimmage on over 45% of his carries since that span. This is an interesting matchup, as Cleveland is allowing just 0.89 yards before contact per rush this season, easily the fewest in football. They are, however, allowing 2.59 yards after contact per attempt, the second-most, so if Hall can get to the second level here, he’ll have a chance at some explosive plays. Still, even after last week’s brilliant performance, Hall remains a volatile RB2 with (clearly) plenty of upside.
Wide Receiver
Although he failed to score again, Garrett Wilson continues to post a strong weekly floor due to some awesome volume. He saw 15 targets from Siemian Sunday, catching nine of them for 76 yards. Wilson has now seen double-digit targets in seven of his last 10 games, while his 31% target share is among the highest rates in the league. If we got consistent, strong quarterback play from the Jets this season, a top-12 finish would have been easily attainable for Wilson, but that unfortunately hasn’t been the case. This week, he’ll face a man-heavy Cleveland defense that deploys the coverage 33% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in football. Against man coverage this year, Wilson has a target share of 33.5%, but ranks 38th in fantasy points per target against the defense (1.38). Cleveland also hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to finish inside the top-24 against them all season long.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin hauled in 4-of-7 targets for 36 yards on Sunday. He ran a route on 82% of dropbacks, his second-highest rate in a game this season. Conklin remains a middling TE2 with minimal upside, as he has yet to score a touchdown this season.
Quarterback
The Joe Flacco renaissance season has been insane and quite frankly, I’m here for it. Flacco led Cleveland to their third consecutive win Sunday, completing 27-of-42 passes for 368 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He has now started four games for Cleveland and during that span, the veteran ranks first in passing yards (1,321), first in 300-yard games (3), first in touchdowns (10), eighth in aDOT (10.0 yards) and second in fantasy points (85.7). Cleveland has transformed into a pass-first offense during that span, as the Browns rank fifth in neutral-script pass rate since Flacco took over at 64.9%, but also lead the NFL in early down pass rate during that span (66.1%). Flacco is averaging 43.7 pass attempts per game in his four starts but now faces easily his toughest test yet. The Jets are allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt, the third-best mark in the league, while their 3.0% interception rate ranks fifth. And for as good as Flacco has been, he has tossed seven interceptions over the last four weeks. We’ve somehow reached a point where players are debating Patrick Mahomes and Joe Flacco and while I totally get it, Flacco still remains a mid-range QB2, especially against this elite pass defense.
Running Back
Between the split and the uptick in pass volume from this offense, both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt remain middling flex options at best. Both running backs found the end zone last week, as Ford continues to play more on early downs and the two-minute drill, while Hunt sees more work on third downs and inside the five-yard line. It limits the upside of both players, though if I am choosing one player from this backfield to start, it would be Ford. Since Week 14, he has played 50% of the snaps and handled 44% of the rush attempts, while Hunt has played 35% of the snaps and handled 38% of the rush attempts.
Wide Receiver
If you went against Amari Cooper last week, you probably closed your computer pretty early. Cooper exploded for 11 catches, 256 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, seeing 15 targets. Oh, and he also caught a two-point conversion. In four games alongside Flacco, Cooper now has a 25% target share, while drawing a target on 28% of his routes. Last week’s game inflated things a bit, but he is averaging 10.5 targets, 6.3 receptions, 121.3 receiving yards and 22.9 PPR points per game with Flacco under center. Cooper is still a low-end WR2 against a New York secondary that has allowed just four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers all season long, while opposing top wideouts are averaging under 60 yards per game against the Jets, the seventh fewest in football.
Tight End
Finally, David Njoku kept it going last week, hauling in 6-of-9 targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. Since Week 8, Njoku has finished as the TE7, TE13, TE7, TE4, TE8, TE26, TE2, TE2 and TE4 in fantasy. During that span, he also ranks first among tight ends in targets (82), third in receptions (51), fourth in receiving yards (532), first in fantasy points, first in end zone targets (9) and third in target share (24.6%). He’ll face a Jets defense that just allowed a touchdown to Logan Thomas last week, their seventh allowed to a tight end this year, the second-most in the league.
