Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins game for Week 16.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX (announcers: Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen)
MIA -1.5, O/U 51
Pace: DAL: 26.0 sec/snap (7th), MIA: 27.8 sec/snap (26th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Jalen Ramsey shadowed Garrett Wilson on 55% of his routes last week.
- It was his first game in shadow coverage this season, though Xavien Howard was out for Miami.
- Since Ramsey’s debut in Week 8, the Dolphins’ defense leads the NFL in EPA per play.
- The Cowboys allow the second-most second-level rushing yards in the NFL.
- James Cook averaged over 4.0 yards before first contact against Dallas last week.
Quarterback
Yikes. Dak Prescortt and the entire Dallas offense struggled last week in Buffalo. Prescott finished with just 134 scoreless yards and an interception. It came at an awful time, but we can still give Prescott the benefit of the doubt since he had been so incredible prior to that game. Since Week 6, Prescott still ranks first in passing yards (2,578), fifth in yards per attempt (8.0), first in touchdown passes (23), second in big time throw rate (7.8%) and second in fantasy points. Admittedly, the Cowboys offense isn’t the same on the road, as they are averaging about 40 points per game at home, compared to just over 21 per game elsewhere. Prescott, meanwhile, is averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game in the comfy Dallas dome, but just over 14 per game on the road. Miami’s defense has been really good since Jalen Ramsey made his debut back in Week 8, ranking first in the league in EPA per play. And during that same span, they are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, they have faced Mac Jones, Aidan O’Connell, Tim Boyle, Sam Howell, Will Levis and Zach Wilson in six of those seven contests. I’d feel much better about Dak if Tyron Smith and Zack Martin were at full strength, but he’s still a top-five quarterback in a potential high-scoring affair.
Running Back
If the game hadn’t gotten out of hand last week, Tony Pollard could have had a great day. He ran well against the Bills, rushing for 52 yards on 11 carries. Pollard has been a disappointment for much of the season, but since Week 11, he is fantasy’s RB7, averaging 18.8 touches and 16.4 PPR points per game. The usage in the passing game during that span has been strong as well, as he is averaging 5.2 targets per game since Week 11 to go along with a 15% target share. Miami has been really good against the run for much of the season, but Pollard should see enough volume to warrant top-15 status at the running back position.
Wide Receiver
Mike McCarthy must have CeeDee Lamb on his fantasy team, because Dallas’ head coach kept Lamb and the starting offense in the game with five minutes left in a blowout last week. It helped Lamb, who caught three passes and ran for a touchdown on the final drive. Lamb now has a touchdown in each of his last six games, seeing double-digit targets in six of his last eight games. Not that you are benching Lamb, but I am interested to see if Ramsey follows him in this game. Last week, Ramsey requested to shadow Garrett Wilson, his first time doing so this season. He followed Wilson on 55% of his routes, holding him to zero catches. However, Miami was without Xavien Howard, who should be back this week.
Tight End
Garbage time helped Jake Ferguson get to six catches for 44 yards on eight targets last week. He now has eight targets in each of his last three games, as he continues to operate as the second option in this Dallas passing attack. Ferguson still ranks among the league leaders in targets from inside the 10-yard line this season and is a rock-solid TE1 against the Dolphins.
Quarterback
Despite missing Tyreek Hill against a tough Jets defense last week, Tua Tagovailoa played well, completing 21-of-24 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown. With Raheem Mostert scoring so many touchdowns, we have actually seen Tua produce as more of a QB2 than QB1 for much of the season. In fact, Tagovailoa only has two top-12 finishes over his last six games. He should get Hill back for this game, though it is against an elite Dallas pass rush that generates pressure at a high rate. Last week, they pressured Josh Allen on over half of his dropbacks. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, is completing just 52.4% of his passes with 5.5 yards per attempt and just three touchdowns when under pressure this season. Add that with the fact that Miami’s offensive line is depleted and there are reasons to be concerned about Tua this week.
Running Back
Do you think Mike McDaniel watched the film of what Buffalo’s run game just did to Dallas? We just saw James Cook dominate, averaging over four yards before contact per rush against the Cowboys. With Dallas playing dime defense at the highest rate in the NFL (69% of the time), it does make them vulnerable against the run, especially without Johnathan Hankins in the middle of that defensive line. It is clearly the weak point of this defense. Raheem Mostert has been the clear lead running back since De’Von Achane returned to action in Week 13. During that stretch, Mostert has played 53% of the snaps, handled 54% of the rush attempts and is averaging 17 touches per game. He’s also been the unquestioned goal line running back, handling 83% of Miami’s attempts inside the 5-yard line. This is a scary spot for Dallas’ defense, as they have allowed the second-most second-level rushing yards this season. Mostert is obviously a must-start running back, and Achane is a high-end flex play with massive upside.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (ankle) missed last week’s game, but it sure looks like he’ll be back in the lineup this weekend. With Hill sidelined last week, Jaylen Waddle caught 8-of-9 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown, seeing a massive 35% target share. Hopefully Hill is 100% healthy but regardless, as long as he starts for the Dolphins, he is starting for your fantasy team. It’ll be interesting to see how much man coverage Dallas plays against Miami here. For the season, the Cowboys have deployed man coverage 41% of the time, the highest rate in football. Playing man coverage against Hill usually goes poorly, as he is sporting a 37.7% target share against man coverage this season, while leading the league in yards per route run against the defense (4.77). His 2.66 fantasy points per target against man coverage also ranks second in football. With Dallas playing a lot of single-high man coverage, both Hill and Waddle could make splash plays over the top, just as long as Tua has time.
Tight End
Absolutely not.
