Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders game for Week 15.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit)
LV -3, O/U 34
Pace: LAC: 25.8 sec/snap (4th), LV: 27.7 sec/snap (24th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- 15 of Easton Stick’s 24 pass attempts last week went to either Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler.
- Austin Ekeler played 72% of the snaps Sunday, nearly 80% of the second-half snaps.
- Just 9.1% of the passes against the Raiders have traveled 20-plus air yards, the third-lowest rate in football.
- The Chargers are allowing the second-most receptions (6.5), most targets (8.5) and second-most receiving yards (50) per game to running backs.
Quarterback
With Justin Herbert out for the remainder of the season, the Chargers will now turn to Easton Stick, who was drafted in the fifth round back in 2019. Stick stepped in for Herbert Sunday and completed 13-of-24 passes for 179 scoreless yards. We are now in the fantasy playoffs so unless you are really desperate in a superflex league, Stick shouldn’t be on your radar. Yes, the Raiders’ soft zone leads to a healthy 67.4% completion rate against (6th-worst) but they also limit explosive passing plays. In fact, just 9.1% of the passes against the Raiders have traveled 20-plus air yards, the third-lowest rate in football. They’ve also only allowed one such touchdown pass all year long.
Running Back
In the week before Sunday’s game, we got reports that Los Angeles was going to change up the backfield a bit, potentially using a hot hand approach. And we did actually see Isaiah Spiller active for the first time in weeks. To start the game, Ekeler and Joshua Kelley split time; Spiller didn’t see the field until the team’s fourth drive. However, Ekeler would eventually start to take over, ultimately finishing the game with a 72% snap share, while playing about 78% of the snaps during the second half. He finished with 51 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, while adding five receptions for 49 yards on seven targets. Ekeler handled 18% of the targets in this game, while his seven targets were his most in a game since Week 10. The offense is clearly going to be worse without Herbert, however, Ekeler will hopefully continue to see strong pass game usage. And while he hasn’t been all that efficient this year, this could be a second straight spot where he finds some success in that department. 11.9% of the runs against the Raiders have gained 10-plus yards this season (seventh most), while they are stuffing just 13% of the runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, the lowest rate in football.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen should continue to see a ton of targets from Stick, as he saw a target share of just over 37% with him in the game Sunday. Of course, his ceiling takes a hit, while there is more volatility than usual for the usually high-floor wideout. When these teams met back in Week 4, Allen caught just 3-of-5 targets for 32 yards, though he did find the end zone. Las Vegas deploys a ton of zone coverage, calling it 66% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in football. Against zone defense this year, Allen is sporting a target share just over 31%, while averaging over 2.0 fantasy points per target. Consider the veteran mid-range WR2 that is far more volume-based than usual.
Meanwhile, I am not starting anyone else here. Joshua Palmer is expected to make his return, which would have been extremely interesting if Herbert were under center. But with Stick under center and Palmer having missed so much time, it would be wise to avoid the secondary wideouts from the Chargers.
Tight End
Gerald Everett actually ran a route on a season-high 68.9% dropbacks last week, finishing third on the team with four targets. Per usual, you’ll need Everett to find the end zone, as he hasn’t even reached 50 receiving yards in a game this season, despite still being inefficient after the catch. The Raiders, meanwhile, are allowing 5.4 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this season (ninth most), but only three tight ends have scored touchdowns against them.
Quarterback
Aidan O’Connell has started five games this season. He has three touchdowns.
The Raiders are possibly even considering starting someone else Thursday. Regardless, that quarterback will be in the same boat as Stick, despite the favorable matchup. You will only have interest if you are really hurting in a superflex format. Only Bryce Young is averaging fewer fantasy points per dropback than O’Connell this season (0.31).
Running Back
Josh Jacobs left late in last week’s game with a knee injury and has opened the week missing consecutive practices. Given the short week, it is entirely possible he sits out this game, which would open up the door for both Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah. The Raiders actually only played six offensive snaps once Jacobs left the game last week, with Abdullah playing most due to game script and the fact that there were some third downs. If Jacobs is out, I’d envision a 60/40 scenario in favor of White, though the matchup could honestly favor Abdullah here. The Chargers are allowing the second-most receptions (6.5), most targets (8.5) and second-most receiving yards (50) per game to running backs this season.
Wide Receiver
We’ll see if there is a change at quarterback but regardless, you are likely once again starting Davante Adams as a mid-range WR2 in full PPR formats. He continues to see a ton of volume with O’Connell under center, sporting a 32% target share and averaging 10.7 targets per game alongside the rookie quarterback. The touchdowns, however, haven’t been there, as Adams has scored just once since Week 3, which has limited him to just one top-10 fantasy finish since Week 3, too. Jakobi Meyers, meanwhile, has been much better with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. With O’Connell under center, Meyers’ target share is under 16%, averaging about six targets per game.
Tight End
Since Week 8, Michael Mayer has run a route on 69% of dropbacks, as he continues to play more than Austin Hooper. Of course, that has only resulted in a target share of 11% during that span, though this is a matchup to potentially chase. The Chargers are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (13.3), fifth-most receiving yards (50.3) and fifth-most receptions per game (5.7) to opposing tight ends this year.
