Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers game for Week 11.
Week 11 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -11, O/U 41.5
Pace: TB: 26.4 sec/snap (15th), SF: 29.5 sec/snap (32nd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- San Francisco is allowing 85.5 yards per game to opposing lead wide receivers (seventh most).
- They are also allowing the second-most receptions per game to the wide receiver position (15.4).
- Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs in snap share (80%).
- Rachaad White ranks third (78%).
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield has been a high-end QB2 in fantasy for much of the season. And over the last four weeks, he has finished as the QB10, QB8, QB13 and QB10. Mayfield has probably been a slightly below average quarterback outside of fantasy football, but he should remain a very strong QB2 with top-12 upside this week. For starters, he should be throwing the ball quite a bit, and I actually like the matchup for his wideouts on the outside. And if the Bucs are going to have success on offense in this game, it is most likely going to come through the air. 72.7% of the yardage surrendered by San Francisco this season has come via the pass, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, 71.4% of the touchdowns against them have come through the air, the sixth-highest rate. Pressure is always a concern when facing this unit, but Mayfield has actually fared well under pressure, completing 51% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions this season.
Running Back
I wouldn’t expect a ton of efficiency from Rachaad White, but I would expect him to be on the field a ton. His 78% snap share ranks third among all running backs this season, while he’s handled 64% of Tampa Bay’s rushing attempts. White is averaging 18.5 touches per game, while the usage in the passing game has been very solid as of late. Since Week 6, he is sporting a 14% target share and now has at least 46 receiving yards in each of his last four games. Of course, he is still struggling to run the football, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, while averaging just 1.1 yards before contact per attempt. His longest run of the year is just 16 yards, as he is averaging -0.7 yards over expected per attempt, the fourth-worst mark among qualified running backs. A matchup with San Francisco’s elite run defense is unlikely to help with that, but White will see enough volume to warrant RB2 status.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans had a great game last week, hauling in six passes for 143 yards and a touchdown. He also dropped a wide open touchdown, so his day could have been even better. Despite the concerns entering the season, Evans has been outstanding, ranking top-12 among all wideouts in fantasy points per game. He has a 24% target share on the season, while handling nearly 40% of Tampa Bay’s air yards. I like this spot for him against a 49ers defense that gives up plenty of production to opposing wide receivers. San Francisco is allowing 85.5 yards per game to opposing lead wide receivers this season, the seventh-most in football. They are also coughing up the second-most receptions per game to the wide receiver position (15.4). San Francisco tends to play a lot of single-high coverage, making them susceptible to the deep ball, which is what presents Evans with that ceiling. He is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 here.
Chris Godwin, meanwhile, continues to present more of a floor than ceiling. Despite playing out wide 67.3% of the time this season (26.7% in 2022), Godwin has just six deep targets on the season, while accounting for 26% of Tampa Bay’s air yards. Both his air yards per route run and yards per target are up, but Godwin has just one game with over 77 receiving yards this season. I still like him as a low-end WR2 against a 49ers defense that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season.
Tight End
Cade Otton continues to play a lot, running a route on over 85% of dropbacks this season. However, he is the fourth option in this offense most weeks and has to face Fred Warner and the 49ers, who are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (33.4).
Quarterback
With San Francisco’s offense finally whole again last week, Brock Purdy thrived, completing 19-of-26 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Having Deebo Samuel healthy is great, but this offense really becomes borderline unstoppable with a healthy Trent Williams at left tackle. Purdy is now averaging an impressive 0.61 fantasy points per dropback on the season, second to only Jalen Hurts of the Eagles. He also leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.3) and should continue to post top-10 numbers against a reeling Tampa Bay secondary. Since Week 5, the Bucs rank 32nd in EPA per dropback on defense, while their 51.6% success rate on dropbacks is the worst rate in the league. They are now allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on the season, while also allowing the sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6). Purdy has also been stellar against the blitz this season, completing 64% of his passes with eight touchdowns, one interception and 9.7 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, blitzes 37.9% of the time, the third-highest rate in football.
Running Back
Well, the touchdown streak finally came to an end last week, but Kyle Shanahan sure tried to preserve it. Honestly, it was pretty idiotic to force feed Christian McCaffrey the ball four straight plays up by 30 late in the game, but the fantasy football community appreciates it. Anyway, even without scoring, McCaffrey still scored over 20 PPR points last week. He is averaging over 21 touches and 100 scrimmage yards per game on the season, while leading all running backs in snap share (80%). McCaffrey has seen a carry or a target on 38.8% of his snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. This isn’t the easiest matchup in the world, but who cares?
Wide Receiver
Everyone in the San Francisco passing game got there last week, although Deebo Samuel’s touchdown came on the ground. Brandon Aiyuk, meanwhile, caught just three passes, but made the most of them, totaling 55 yards and a touchdown. Aiyuk only has an 18.5% target share against the blitz this season, but it does lead the team. Tampa Bay sends a ton of blitzes while dropping into zone coverage 65% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in football. That means it might be a Deebo week, especially if he makes just one defender miss. Samuel is sporting a 27.2% target share against zone coverage this season, while averaging 1.83 fantasy points per target against the defense. Tampa Bay is also allowing a catch rate over 84%, as well as the seventh-most fantasy points per target off slant routes this season (1.76). Samuel, meanwhile, leads this team in targets off slant routes this season. Don’t be surprised if he takes one to the house Sunday.
Tight End
Even with San Francisco’s offense at full strength Sunday, George Kittle still posted 116 yards and a touchdown, largely due to a 66-yard catch and run down the sideline. The floor still won’t be as high on a weekly basis as you might like but there are few tight ends that can match his weekly upside, especially against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks bottom-seven against opposing tight ends over the last four weeks. Dalton Kincaid torched the Bucs for 5-65-1 in Week 8, followed by Dalton Schultz in Week 9 (10-130-1). Kittle’s first name isn’t Dalton but he’s clearly a better player. He could go off again this weekend.
