Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs game for Week 11.
Week 11 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC -3, O/U 46
Pace: PHI: 27.8 sec/snap (28th), KC: 27.5 sec/snap (23rd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- In five games without Dallas Goedert last year, DeVonta Smith averaged 1.07 more targets, 20.6 more receiving yards and 2.0 more fantasy points per game.
- A.J. Brown has a 40.6% target share against man coverage and 43.6% target share against the blitz.
- The Chiefs rank sixth in both blitz rate and usage of man coverage this season.
- Rashee Rice has been targeted on 24% of his routes this season.
- The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points per game to pass-catchers from the slot (16.8).
Quarterback
Following the bye, hopefully Jalen Hurts is close to 100% healthy. It hasn’t stopped him from posting elite numbers, as Hurts has finished as a top-six fantasy quarterback in seven of nine games this season. Hurts leads the league in fantasy points per dropback, while also ranking sixth in yards per attempt (7.7). We obviously saw Hurts do whatever he wanted to against this defense in the Super Bowl last year but Kansas City has been elite this season, allowing the sixth-lowest completion rate (60.7%) and third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.1). Only the Ravens and Browns are allowing fewer points per drive than the Chiefs (1.40). Against the blitz this season, Hurts is completing 65% of his passes with 8.3 yards per attempt and six touchdowns, but also has five interceptions. We’ll see how much Steve Spagnuolo and company blitz this time around.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift remains a high-end RB2. His efficiency has come down in recent weeks but since fully taking over this backfield in Week 2, Swift is still averaging 20.3 touches per game, while the usage in the passing game has been fairly consistent. Kansas City is coughing up 4.5 yards per carry on the season (6th-most), though they haven’t surrendered many touchdowns to the running back position. Still, Swift should be in line for 16-20 touches and if he manages to not get tackled at the 1-yard line, he could post top-10 numbers on any given week in this offense.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown is obviously in your lineup. He has either 125 yards or a touchdown in seven straight games, while posting a 32% target share and 27% targets per route run on the season. Brown will face a blitz and man-centric Kansas City defense, which is both exciting but also a tad worrisome. Against the blitz this season, Brown has a 43.8% target share, the second-highest rate in football behind only Garrett Wilson of the Jets. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are sixth in the league in blitz rate at 33.7%. Brown also has a target share just north of 40%, which Kansas City deploys 35% of the time, also the sixth-highest rate in the league. However, we have seen this defense really limit top wideouts. Tyreek Hill failed to reach 65 yards, while Justin Jefferson struggled to do much for three quarters against this unit. In fact, opposing top wide receivers are averaging just 50.2 receiving yards per game against the Chiefs, the second fewest in football. Brown remains a top-three fantasy wide receiver, but I am excited to see how this matchup plays out.
Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith has now scored in consecutive games, though he has been way behind Brown in terms of target share. Perhaps he could close the gap a bit with Dallas Goedert sidelined. Last season, Smith was much better in fantasy with Goedert on the sidelines. In five games without Goedert last year, Smith averaged 1.07 more targets, 20.6 more receiving yards and 2.0 more fantasy points per game. The Eagles didn’t even bother throwing the football to their tight ends when Goedert was out, so I’d expect most of the targets to go to Brown, Smith and the running backs. He’s a strong WR2 play this week, and most likely until Goedert returns to the lineup.
Tight End
Without Dallas Goedert? No thank you.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been quite as good as we expected, but that’s just the standard you set when you are the best player in the world. Mahomes is 11th in fantasy points per dropback this season (0.49), while setting career-lows in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Following the bye, this should be a spot for him to post a huge game. The Eagles have been a massive pass funnel this season, as 79.4% of the yardage gained against this defense has come through the air, the highest rate in the league. Philadelphia is also coughing up the fifth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.2%) and fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. And prior to their bye, the Eagles allowed Dak Prescott and Sam Howell to both finish as top-three quarterbacks against them.
Running Back
This is a really tough spot for Isiah Pacheco. Teams don’t even bother trying to run the ball against the Eagles most of the time. In fact, opponents are sporting a 32.4% neutral script rush rate against the Eagles this season, the lowest rate in the league. Philadelphia is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry on the season, as well as the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (13.8). Again, that’s not 13.8 points per game allowed to lead running backs, but entire backfields. Pacheco’s volume has been solid, but he’ll likely need to maintain a strong role in the passing game or find the end zone in this spot. He’s a low-end RB2 for me.
Wide Receiver
Per usual, the only Kansas City wideout you are even considering is Rashee Rice. He leads this wide receiver room with a 24% target per route run rate, but he is hardly crossing the 60% route participation threshold because the Chiefs run such a deep rotation at wide receiver. This is a good matchup, however, as the Eagles are coughing up the most fantasy points per game to pass-catchers from the slot (16.8) this season, which is where Rice lines up about 60% of the time. Meanwhile, their secondary has also simply been getting torched, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Rice is a very intriguing WR3 this week.
Tight End
Start Travis Kelce. He leads all tight ends in both targets (28%) and yards (2.43) per route run. The Eagles have allowed a tight end to find the end zone against them in two straight games and before their bye, Jake Ferguson put together a career game against them (7-91-1).
