The Read Option, Week 1: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets game for Week 1.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Total: 45.5, BUF -2.5
Pace: BUF: 27.0 sec/snap (9th), NYJ: 27.0 sec/snap (9th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• The Bills ran two-TE sets just 7.9% of the time this past season, the fourth-lowest rate in all of football.
•  In 2021, no team in the NFL averaged fewer yards after the catch per reception than the Bills (4.2).
• This past season, Josh Allen averaged just 4.4 yards after the catch per completion, which was the second-lowest mark in the league.
• Only the Bengals and Commanders surrendered a lower completion percentage in zone coverage than the Jets (64%).
• Garrett Wilson was third in the NFL in first-read target last season (133).

Quarterback

QB1, QB1, QB2. Josh Allen has emerged as both an elite real-life and fantasy signal caller over the last few seasons. And if he played all 17 games last year, he would have finished as fantasy’s QB1 for the third consecutive season. Allen threw for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, while adding 762 rushing yards and an additional seven scores. He gives you explosive passing plays, as his 83 deep attempts ranked second, while 14.6% of his pass attempts traveled 20-plus yards. He also gives you an incredible floor with his rushing, averaging seven rushing attempts and 38.9 rushing yards per game over the last three seasons. For two years now, the Bills have talked about how they want Allen to run the football less. And for two years, Allen has actually run the football more, totaling 122 and 124 attempts over the past two seasons. Allen has ranked third and fourth among quarterbacks in designed rushing attempts during that span, as his size, athleticism and playmaking as a huge part of this offense. Buffalo would often call QB power plays out of empty sets and although the coaching staff has discussed how they (once again) want Allen to run less, it remains such a key part of the offense. With his size, Allen will always be used, in some capacity, around the goal line, too. This past season, Allen accounted for a whopping 61.1% of Buffalo’s carries from inside the 5-yard line, which wasn’t just the highest rate among all quarterbacks, but good for the 10th-highest rate in all of football. That was actually way up from his 2020 and 2021 rates of 37.5% and 31.0%, as Buffalo clearly relied on Allen in every facet of the game this past season. Allen now has four consecutive seasons with at least 100 rush attempts.

This week’s matchup is undoubtedly difficult. In two meetings against the Jets last year, Allen completed just 55.7% of his passes with one touchdown pass. Only San Francisco allowed fewer points per drive than the Jets last year (1.57) but Allen did make up for his underwhelming passing totals with two rushing touchdowns against New York. He’s not a top-three fantasy quarterback for me this week, but you obviously aren’t getting away from Allen.

Running Back

James Cook fumbled the very first carry of his NFL career. From then on, however, he was very good. As a rookie, Cook ranked second among all qualified running backs in yards per attempt (5.7), third in yards per touch (6.3) and first in breakaway run rate (12.1%). Starting in Week 11, Cook started to get more run, averaging 10 touches and 11 opportunities per game alongside Devin Singletary, who is now in Houston. Cook is talented and in a terrific offense. The issue, however, is the fact that he is sub-200 pounds and the Bills added two running backs over 215 pounds this offseason. Cook was an outstanding pass-catching prospect coming out of Georgia, but he isn’t in the greatest offense to showcase that talent, as Buffalo has targeted running backs 14.6% and 20% of the time over the last two seasons.

During the preseason, Cook dominated the snaps and opportunities with the starting offense. However, in the third and final game, Damien Harris was active. Harris entered the game once Buffalo got inside the 10-yard line and converted a touchdown from two yards out, which has been the concern for Cook all offseason. In 2021, Harris scored nine touchdowns on his 15 carries from inside the 5-yard line and should get the first crack at goal line work in Buffalo. A matchup against the Jets isn’t the best in the world but Cook should be in line for 14-16 touches, making him a high-end flex play for me.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs joined the Bills in 2020. During that span, the All-Pro wideout ranks second in targets and receptions and fourth in receiving yards. He’s also fifth among wideouts in fantasy points per game since then, providing a fantastic combination of floor and ceiling. This past season, Diggs had either 70 receiving yards or a touchdown in 12 different games, as he remains the clear focal point of this Buffalo offense. He had a career-high 11 touchdowns last season, as Diggs has ranked first and second in end zone targets over the past two years (22, 18). Volume will always be on his side, as Diggs finished seventh in first-read targets (129) and tied for sixth in targets per route run (28%). He also wasn’t great against the Jets, who were the top team in football against boundary wide receivers last season. New York allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers on the right side of the formation (8.0), but Buffalo tried to move Diggs around against the Jets last season. Because Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed play sides on defense, there weren’t any shadow situations last season. Instead, Diggs played in the slot 48.6% and 41.2% of the time, which was up from his overall slot rate of 34.1%. Yes, the matchup is tough, but Diggs isn’t leaving your starting lineup.

Gabe Davis, however, is probably a sit, despite how good of a post-hype sleeper he is. Davis pretty much only plays on the perimeter, which is where the Jets defend better than anyone in football. That means he’ll see coverage from Sauce Gardner, who allowed the fewest fantasy points per coverage route last season, or D.J. Reed, who allowed just 0.71 yards per route run in coverage. Gardner allowed a reception every 18 coverage snaps during his rookie season, the best rate among qualified defensive backs. As a team, the Jets allowed just 2.7 receptions and 6.1 fantasy points per game to receivers on the left side of the formation, the best in the league. There is obviously still upside for Davis to catch a long pass, as his 16.3-yard aDOT was the fourth highest among qualified wideouts last season. But I’d like to bench him this week if I can.

WRs I’d start over Davis this week: Van Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Nico Collins

Tight End

This is where things get interesting.

Because the Jets are so good at limiting wide receivers on the outside, targets tend to funnel to the middle of the field to the tight ends. This is where I think Buffalo has an advantage, especially after drafting Dalton Kincaid. He’s a smooth, fluid tight end that has great hands (two career drops) and strong ability after the catch. Buffalo will utilize him as a slot receiver, which should work. Kincaid operated from the slot 49% of the time during his collegiate career, while over half of his targets over the last two years have come from the slot. Meanwhile, nearly 75% of his receptions from the slot went for either a first down or a touchdown. The Bills ran two tight end sets just 7.9% of the time this past season, the fourth-lowest rate in all of football. That rate is going to skyrocket this year and we saw it already in the preseason. I think Kincaid and Dawson Knox will be busy on Monday, as opposing tight ends averaged 7.8 targets per game against the Jets last season, the fourth-most in football. The Jets also allowed the fifth-most receptions (5.5) and receiving yards (61.1) per game to the position. In two meetings against the Jets last year, Knox saw target shares of 26% and 12%, while going for 41 yards and a touchdown in Week 14. I could see Kincaid and Knox both seeing five or six targets in this game. Kincaid is a back-end TE1 for me, even in his NFL debut. 

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers was traded to New York this offseason, making for perhaps the most significant position upgrade in the history of football. Rodgers is coming off his worst season, ranking 22nd in fantasy points per dropback (0.43) and fantasy points per game (14.8). His 12 interceptions were his most in a season since 2008, while he finished as a top-12 fantasy signal caller just twice all year long. It is unlikely he’ll be that inefficient again this season but there also seems to be a limited ceiling with Rodgers. The Jets are going to be a slow, run-first team that relies on their defense more. There is a lot of excitement surrounding Rodgers and the Jets, but I have him as a mid-range QB2 to open the year. Buffalo allowed the eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate last season (3.7%), as well as the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (14.4). And that was despite the top four players in their secondary (Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Taron Johnson) playing zero snaps together. 

Running Back

If Breece Hall wasn’t working his way back from a torn ACL, he probably would have been a borderline first-round fantasy selection. He was well on his way to a spectacular rookie season, taking over the Jets backfield starting in Week 4. In Weeks 4-7, Hall averaged 16.25 touches, over 100 total yards and 19.2 PPR points per game, despite only playing 12 snaps before tearing his ACL in Week 7. Hall emerged into a 65-70% snap share running back and from Weeks 1-7, he ranked third in yards after contact per attempt (4.14), third in runs of 10-plus yards (14) and second in runs of 15-plus yards (8).

This backfield is tough to project right now, however. The Jets added Dalvin Cook, who is fully healthy ahead of this game. Hall is expected to play but will more than likely be limited in his first game back. You’re playing Cook over Hall to start the season, though both Jets running backs are pretty risky flex plays.

Wide Receiver

Despite playing in the worst passing offense in football, Garrett Wilson put together a stellar rookie campaign, hauling in 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. Wilson finished top-seven among wideouts in both targets and end zone targets, while only Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson saw more first-read targets than the rookie sensation (133). Wilson’s production is even more impressive considering how bad the Jets quarterback play was, as just 61% of his total targets were deemed catchable, which resulted in a 56.5% catch rate, 25th-worst in the league. Per FTN Fantasy’s Expected Fantasy Points tool, Wilson scored 57.6 fewer points than expected, the third-most among all wideouts. We already know Wilson is the premiere breakout candidate in football entering the season. And we know he is going to be really good. All that needs to be answered is exactly how good?

Wilson failed to score against the Bills last season but recorded 92 and 78 receiving yards. We’ll see if Tre’Davious White can get back to his elite level of play, but Wilson should also see plenty of coverage from Christian Benford, who was selected in the sixth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Wilson and Rodgers have already developed quite the rapport and it should be a huge year for the sophomore wideout. You’re obviously starting him.

Tight End

Tight end Tyler Conklin was also quietly productive last season, ranking eighth among tight ends in targets (87), 15th in targets share (14.7%) and 16th in fantasy points. And while the addition of Rodgers is obviously great for Conklin, the Jets also have more depth at wide receiver after adding Lazard and Mecole Hardman this offseason. I’m sure Conklin will have a handful of useable fantasy weeks, but he remains a mid-range TE2 for now. We’ll see if the Bills, who were the third-best team at defending tight ends a season ago, take a step back after losing MLB Tremaine Edmunds.