The Fantasy Football One-Hit Wonders of 2024

It’s fun to hit on a guy who becomes a fantasy football asset and stays good for years. Everyone likes a success story. But it’s just as important, if far less fun, to be aware of when a good performance might not repeat, when a guy had his career year and will slide back to irrelevance (or at least not-quite-as-relevance) going forward.

So today is wet blanket day: Who just had their career year in fantasy football? Who is destined to be a disappointment in 2025 when those subject to recency bias draft them as though 2024 is their new normal?

Last year this piece landed on names like Raheem Mostert, Sam Howell (before he lost his job in Washington) and Jerome Ford. On the flip side, Chuba Hubbard was on the list, and that proved to be wrong in a big way. It’s not an infallible process, but it’s worth noting when a player reaches a level he’s never reached before and is a long shot to get there again.

So who are the one-hit wonders heading into 2025?

All fantasy scores are PPR.

Fantasy Football One-Hit Wonders for 2025

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2024 finish: QB4
Previous career best: QB10 (2023)

In the spirit of full disclosure, Mayfield was in this article a year ago, and that proved to be a big old whiff. But I’m doubling down, because while Mayfield has reestablished himself as a bona-fide NFL quarterback, and a good one, he’s not a “top-four fantasy quarterback” player. It was a perfect storm for Mayfield in 2024 — a diminished Tampa defense that led to high-offense game scripts, an offensive system that worked in his favor, and more rushing success than Mayfield has ever had before. Before 2024, he hadn’t ever run for more than 165 yards in a season and hadn’t had more than 1 rushing score since 2019, but he set a career-high with 378 yards last year and scored three times on the ground. That alone was good for 55.8 fantasy points, more than 20 more than he had ever scored in a season before.

Add in yet another offensive coordinator for Mayfield now that Liam Coen is in Jacksonville, the likelihood Chris Godwin is elsewhere in 2025, and returns to form for quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts raising the level of elite quarterbacks in fantasy, and while Mayfield is at least a borderline QB1 in fantasy, he’s not likely to ever again sniff “QB4 overall.”

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings

2024 finish: QB9
Previous career best: QB27 (2018, 2019)

Probably the poster boy for this exercise, Mayfield’s 2022 Panthers teammate resurrected his career in 2024, threw for more touchdowns in 2024 (35) than in his previous four years combined (27) and topped his previous career best in passing yards by nearly 1,300 (4,319 compared to 3,024 in 2019). Darnold is a free agent this offseason, though, and the Vikings have J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings. Exactly what happens with the former third overall pick is going to be one of the stories of the offseason. If the Vikings bring him back as a backup to McCarthy, he won’t come even close to repeating. If he signs elsewhere, the chances he lands in a situation as conducive to fantasy success are slim to none. The only way Darnold has any chance of repeating his fantasy success is if the Vikings retain him (either on an extension or the franchise tag) and decide McCarthy needs another year of growth (or isn’t healthy). And even then, Darnold’s old problems came back late in the season, so the book might be out.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

2024 finish: RB10
Previous career best: RB63 (2023)

The Bengals knew Chase Brown was explosive. They saw it in a small sample in 2023. What they didn’t know is whether he could handle a full-time load, which is why they added Zack Moss last offseason. Only once Moss got hurt did they unleash Brown, and he rewarded them in a big way, the RB5 from Week 9 to Week 17 when Moss was out and Brown was healthy. Still, it was clear they only really relied on Brown once they were out of options — they brought in Khalil Herbert but didn’t give him more than 2 carries until Brown got hurt in Week 17.

Brown has certainly earned enough trust to be the RB1 in Cincinnati entering 2025. But there is basically no shot he has the job to himself like he did for most of 2024. The Bengals will add help. And that alone is enough to tell you Brown isn’t likely to be a fantasy RB1 again.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

2024 finish: RB14
Previous career best: RB50 (2023)

Rico Dowdle was the best running back in Dallas last year by a wide margin, and everyone watching the Cowboys knew that except, apparently, the Cowboys themselves, who didn’t give him the job over Ezekiel Elliott until midseason. Dowdle ran wild down the stretch, with over 100 rushing yards four times in the last six weeks of the season. His 1,079 yards resulted in only 2 scores on the ground, and Dowdle wasn’t much down close — per FTN StatsHub, he had only 10 carries inside the 10-yard line last year, and they were worth a combined -1.76 EPA, a bottom-20 number among running backs. Dowdle is due to hit free agency — he’s not likely to get a spotlight role outside of Dallas, and if he stays there, they’ll be bringing in help this offseason.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns

2024 finish: WR12
Previous career best: WR22 (2022)

By raw numbers, Jeudy’s debut season in Cleveland was a revelation, with the former first-rounder setting career-highs in targets (145), receptions (90), receiving yards (1,229) and PPR points (240.9). But it wasn’t exactly a smooth path. Jeudy didn’t really go crazy until Deshaun Watson got hurt and Jameis Winston took over, and he went cold again when Winston got benched. Per the FTN Splits Tool, Jeudy averaged 112.3 yards and 20.8 PPR points in Winston’s seven starts, compared to 44.3 yards and 9.1 PPR points when anyone else started for Cleveland.

Watson might be back under center for Cleveland in 2024, but Winston certainly won’t be. And that’s before considering the possibility the team adds more receiving help this offseason. Jeudy might be fine, but another season as a back-end WR1 seems very unlikely.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers

2024 finish: WR24
Previous career best: WR90 (2021, 2022)

There are a handful of paths the 49ers could go down in 2025. They could retain Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. Or they could trade one of them and give more work to Ricky Pearsall, who came on strong down the stretch despite missing a chunk of the season after being shot. Or they could lean back on the assuming-he’s-healthy Christian McCaffrey. Any of those scenarios (or a combination thereof) would seem to indicate less work for Jennings, who had about as many targets (113), receptions (77) and yards (975) in 2024 as he had had in his three previous years combined (127, 78 and 963, respectively). San Francisco realized what it had in Jennings last year, but with Aiyuk hurt and Samuel struggling, he rose to being the WR1, and he’s not going to be that again in 2025.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins

2024 finish: TE4
Previous career best: TE16 (2020)

Smith set career-highs across the board last year, somehow becoming arguably the top pass-catcher in Miami despite Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane all existing. (Hill had more targets and yards than Smith, but Smith had more receptions, touchdowns and PPR points.) Smith had as many touchdowns in 2020 as he did in 2024, but otherwise, he blew all his previous career bests out of the water. It was his first year in Miami after a season in Atlanta, two in New England and four in Tennessee. So it’s fair to assume that Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins unlocked a level in Smith no one had seen before. But even if that’s the case, there’s a difference between “being better than ever” and “going from fantasy irrelevant to a true fantasy star,” and there’s an even bigger difference between those and “doing it again at age 30.” Maybe Smith can be a fantasy starter again in 2025 (though if Waddle can rebound to his production of a couple years ago, I’d take the under), but he’s not TE4 again.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers

2024 finish: TE10
Previous career best: TE29 (2023)

On a Packers team that came into the year with three fantasy-relevant receivers and whose tight end that many saw as a 2024 breakout was named “Luke Musgrave,” it was Kraft who led the team in receiving touchdowns (7) and came in second in yards (707, behind only Jayden Reed’s 857). It wasn’t totally out of nowhere — peep my bold predictions from last offseason — but it wasn’t exactly on most people’s radars. Kraft won’t surprise anyone in 2025, but the chance Musgrave misses most of the season and Romeo Doubs disappoints/gets suspended again is slim. There won’t be as much opportunity for Kraft in 2025 and beyond.