Fantasy Football 2024: Bold Predictions for Every Tier

Consider three articles that all bill themselves as “fantasy football bold predictions.” Those are fun to click on. People usually put a lot of thought into them. You read all three, and you realize something:

Boldness isn’t all made equally.

Take a look at three things that might qualify for such an article:

• “Saquon Barkley is the No. 1 fantasy running back.” That’s kind of bold! Christian McCaffrey is the consensus No. 1, with Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall (in some order) backing him up. But then, Barkley has been the RB1 before, and he’s joining a much better team in a much better situation. It’s bold, but only kind of. If that happens, you might remember that prediction, you might not.
• “De’Von Achane is the No. 1 fantasy running back.” Hey, that’s bolder! Sure, Achane was exciting last year and set some efficiency records, but no one is making that prediction! If that happens, the person gets to toot his or her own horn on Twitter, and you’ll probably remember having read it.
• “Najee Harris is the No. 1 fantasy running back.” Whoa, that’s the boldest. It’s pretty out there. If you squint, you can certainly understand the argument — offensive line improving, Jaylen Warren already hurt, quarterback situation improved, Harris entering free agency so Steelers not motivated to take it easy on him — but even then, that’s pretty notable. If that happens, the writer goes viral on Twitter. But even if Harris isn’t the RB1 but still finishes, like, RB5, well, that was still a pretty nice prediction. The more out there the pick, the more credit you get just for being close.

Three bold predictions, all definitionally correct for being “bold,” but very different in terms of actual boldness. So every year, I try to cover all three. For each position, I give a bold, bolder and boldest prediction. The bold prediction is one I think will happen or close. The bolder might not happen explicitly, but I think it very well might, and it’s definitely realistic. The boldest is more of a directional thing — maybe the actual degree is a lot, but if you follow down that road and the prediction comes up a bit short, well, your compass still pointed in the right direction, and that counts for a lot.

Now, on to the bold predictions for 2024.

Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football in 2024

Quarterback

Bold: Caleb Williams Is a Top-10 Fantasy QB

I’m not going to write a lot here. Generational quarterback prospect. Best situation a first overall pick has ever entered. He looks so dang exciting in preseason. Y’all can keep your Jayden Danielses, give me the guy who could be the best quarterback the Bears have ever had by, like, the time you finish reading this.

Bolder: Jalen Hurts Is Not a Top-4 Fantasy QB

I actually think this one is a little bolder than it looks, because there is no bigger tier gap at quarterback than between Tier 1 (QB1-QB3 or QB4, depending on how you feel about Anthony Richardson) and the rest. Hurts might finish at the top of the second tier, but he’ll be closer to QB10 or QB12 than QB2 or QB3.

So what’s the problem with Hurts? Well, multiple things. First, and the one I haven’t heard discussed much this offseason, is that the team took big steps to fix its flagging pass defense this offseason, signing C.J. Gardner-Johnson and drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first two rounds. The Eagles had to keep their feet on the gas last year, with the third-most points allowed at 428, most among playoff teams by 33. Even if Mitchell and DeJean take time to integrate, the defense is going to allow fewer points in 2024, and that dings the offense.

Add in the arrival of Saquon Barkley and departure of Jason Kelce, and Hurts’ specialty — the Tush Push at the 1-yard line — is going to all but evaporate. Barkley won’t get tackled at the 1 as often as D’Andre Swift did, and the Eagles won’t lean on Hurts as much without Kelce and with a better running back. Add it up, and Hurts is QB5, QB6, QB7 in 2024. Not top three.

Boldest: Neither Joe Burrow Nor C.J. Stroud Is a Top-8 Fantasy QB

One at a time:

Joe Burrow has battled injury multiple times in his career. We don’t know (because no one knows, it’s a brand new injury for a thrower of balls) how he’ll do in his return from a wrist injury, to the point that the Bengals are limiting his throwing. Ja’Marr Chase is still sitting out while he waits on a new deal, and even if that gets worked out, this much downtime opens him up to soft tissue injuries upon his return. The vibes are just bad in Cincinnati, and given that Burrow doesn’t offer as much rushing upside as you might think (11.6 yards per game in his career), the downside is enough to scare me off.

Now, C.J. Stroud. The best comparison you can find to his rookie year is not one fantasy managers will like, because it’s an amazing comp to Baker Mayfield’s rookie season. No, Stroud isn’t likely to fall off like Mayfield did in his second season, but the point is that the hype is out of control for a quarterback who doesn’t run (11.1 yards per game last year), who struggled mightily when facing elite defenses last year (21.6 fantasy points per game in 10 games against teams with a PFF defense grade under 75.0, 14.3 in six games against teams over 75.0) and who now faces a first-place schedule. Stroud will be one of the biggest letdowns of 2024.

Running Back

Bold: Christian McCaffrey Is Not the RB1

If I had to pick one single running back to finish as the RB1 in 2024, the pick would be Christian McCaffrey and I’d be foolish to say otherwise. But if you give me McCaffrey or the field? Field, all day. McCaffrey is old for a running back. Trent Williams is holding out. He just led the league in carries, a year after tying for fourth. Running backs get hurt.

Maybe Bijan Robinson breaks out in 2024. Maybe Breece Hall repeats his 2023 but with more scoring success. Maybe Jonathan Taylor rebounds, maybe Saquon Barkley thrives in Philadelphia, maybe any number of things. However it happens, Christian McCaffrey won’t be the RB1 in 2024.

Bolder: Bucky Irving Is the Leading Rookie Fantasy RB

There are classes of rookie running backs, and I definitely don’t think Bucky Irving will be in the Ezekiel Elliott/Alvin Kamara/Saquon Barkley camp. But he’ll still finish as the top fantasy running back, because he’s the only good runner in Tampa. Yes, that includes Rachaad White, who I will say for the last time this preseason was the least efficient ball carrier with at least 250 PPR points since at least Trent Richardson. White’s an excellent receiving back miscast as a bell cow, and that will change with Irving now around.

White’s receiving work will keep Irving from being a fantasy star, but with not much else among the rookie backs (we don’t know when Jonathon Brooks will debut, and the other high-profile backs are behind one and in some cases multiple other backs), Irving racking up the yards on the ground alone will be enough to put him atop this year’s rookie class.

Boldest: Tony Pollard Is a Top-8 RB

For my money, the top five running backs in fantasy for 2024 are very obvious. It is (your order may vary, that doesn’t matter as much) Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. After that, there’s a big tier drop, with the next names all having some level of flaw. So right there with the flawed backs, let’s add in the guy who was the RB8 in ADP last year, hyped to take over as the lead back in what was thought to be a run-heavy offense. Only Tony Pollard crashed and burned last year, in part (at least if you ask me) because people overlooked the fact that the dude literally broke his leg in the same calendar year. The hype around Pollard just wanted to pretend that didn’t happen (and also believed the Cowboys when they lied that they’d be run-dominant, but I digress).

Pollard got back to his normal as the year went on last year and further recovered. It wasn’t necessarily reflected in his raw rushing numbers, as the Cowboys went so run-heavy, but check out his grading:

Now he’s in Tennessee, ostensibly in a committee with second-year Tyjae Spears, except they are similar types of backs, only with Pollard 2 inches taller and 15 pounds heavier. Spears will be the return man and guy when Pollard needs a rest, but Pollard will be the bell cow in Tennessee and will return the value so many expected out of him a year ago.

Wide Receiver

Bold: Cooper Kupp Outscores Puka Nacua

The Rams have two receivers who have put up historic seasons fairly recently. Cooper Kupp had maybe the best receiver season ever back in 2021, while Puka Nacua had one of the best rookie seasons of all time last year. Good problem to have.

The flaws: Kupp’s big season was three years ago now, and he’s spent a lot of time banged up since then. Nacua’s big season came in part with Kupp shelved and the Rams having few other weapons, and it featured him popping up on injury reports every 13 minutes (or at least it felt that way), and while he kept making it back on the field, that’s the kind of thing that catches up with you.

Reports out of Rams camp are that Kupp is back to lead dog status in Los Angeles or close. If he is, well, this prediction is an easy one. But even if he isn’t, they’re at least comparable (despite Nacua having a WR8 ADP and Kupp WR17), and they carry comparable injury risks. Give me the veteran with the lower ADP.

Bolder: Amon-Ra St. Brown Is the Overall WR1

Everyone is excited about Jared Goff getting something like 48 games out of 17 indoors this year. It should translate into massive passing volume (and passing success). So we have to like his weapons, right?

Well, the question there might be the plural.

Jahmyr Gibbs wasn’t as good or as productive as expected as a receiver during his rookie year, with more work than most would have predicted coming on the ground. Jameson Williams left high school in 2018 and has one good season since (literally, look it up). Sam LaPorta is excellent, but the Lions have the lightest passing game depth chart of any productive team in the league. With Tyreek Hill aging, Justin Jefferson’s quarterback situation a mess, and CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase dealing with contract issues, give me St. Brown to lead the position in fantasy scoring.

Boldest: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Outscores DK Metcalf

PPR scoring! That’s important here, because one of the main factors in this prediction is Jaxon Smith-Njigba moving to the slot basically full time and accruing just about every single short pass the Seahawks need to chuck in 2024 — and it could be a lot, given the struggles of the offensive line. Assuming Ryan Grubb brings his same offense over from the University of Washington, the Seahawks will have three receivers on the field about as often as is conceivably possible, and with Tyler Lockett on the decline, Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf will be the top two weapons. Metcalf will get more yards, but JSN has the reception advantage. A little touchdown luck, and he can beat out his Adonis-like teammate.

Tight End

Bold: Travis Kelce Is the Overall TE1

The popular line around fantasy heading into 2024 was that Travis Kelce’s down (by his standards, it was still very good!) 2023 season was at least partly a product of the Chiefs easing off of his workload to keep him ready for the playoffs, considering he turned 34 in the middle of last season. It’s clean, it’s easy, it makes sense.

It’s also wrong.

The Chiefs didn’t rest Kelce last year. They rested him for part of last year, the part that came right after Kelce missed Week 1 with a hyperextended knee, his first game missed to injury since 2013. For the year, Kelce played only 77.0% of the snaps (when active), his lowest since 2014. But from Week 8 (his first game of an 85% snap share) onward, Kelce played 83.5% of the snaps, more than he played in 2022 or 2021 and roughly in line with 2020. Look at his career through rolling four-game chunks, and he has been under 70% only twice — his first year as a starter in 2014, and a couple of chunks coming out of injury last year.

Translation: The Chiefs didn’t take it easy on Travis Kelce last year. They took it easy on him for part of last year, when he was hurt. Assuming he’s healthy in 2024, he’ll rise back to his regular playing time, and he’ll be right back to the top of the TE heap.

Bolder: Tucker Kraft Outscores Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave has the hype in Green Bay, TE17 by current ADP compared to Tucker Kraft’s TE37. That’s Musgrave, who operated as a quasi-wide receiver last year by depth of target (7.4 yards) and blocker (37^th among 40 qualified tight ends in PFF grade, basically useless as a blocker). All that for a team that has more competent-to-above receivers than some Pro Bowl teams. Meanwhile, Kraft is more traditional, with a 5.3-yard aDOT and a No. 16 grade as a blocker, and for the wealth of pass-catching options the Packers have at receiver, they have very little of it out of the backfield, with Josh Jacobs’ 1,502 touches into a career of 0 receiving touchdowns. Kraft fills a role the Packers have a need at. Musgrave is just more of the wealth they already have. It’s just a matter of them making the change.

Boldest: Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer Are Both Top-15 TEs

Rank the Raiders’ offensive weapons top to bottom, and Davante Adams would be first, and he’d be first with a bullet. But the tight ends might well be second and third, even as a rookie and second-year player at a notoriously difficult-to-adjust-to position. The team’s running game is nothing to speak of, and while Jakobi Meyers is a very good receiver, give me Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. When the Raiders drafted Bowers, Mayer’s ADP plummeted, but the closer we get to the season, the clearer it is that the Raiders will be using Bowers as a de facto third receiver and Mayer as a traditional tight end. That leaves room for both to put up numbers at a position where that doesn’t happen very often. Bowers being a top-15 tight end (borderline top-10 for me) isn’t a surprise, but Mayer should see the field more than enough to crack the higher-end TE2s and make them both fantasy-relevant.