The Candidates to Be the Overall WR1 in 2024

The wide receiver position is up next, as we continue to highlight the candidates to finish as the top player in fantasy football at each position. Wide receiver is a very loaded position, but it is also pretty top-heavy at the same time. It’ll be very, very difficult for anyone to pass the five players in the first tier but players break out every single season.

Let’s take a look.

Follow along with the series so far: QB1 candidates | RB1 candidates | TE1 candidates

Fantasy WR1 Candidates in 2024

Tier 1: The Favorites

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Ja’Marr Chase is my WR1 for 2024.

And look, I get it. Having Chase, who easily averaged the fewest fantasy points per game from this tier, atop the position feels strange. But simply put, I think a huge year is in store. For starters, Chase is still one of the five best wideouts on the planet. But there is a path to a healthy bump in target share in 2024. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Tee Higgins’ future with the Bengals. And while it isn’t guaranteed he isn’t with the team this year, it also isn’t guaranteed that he isn’t. Chase has played 10 career games without Higgins, averaging 8.9 targets, 5.9 receptions, 76.5 receiving yards and 18.4 PPR points per game. But that doesn’t also take into account the four games where Higgins left early, playing less than 30 snaps. In those games, Chase is averaging 11.5 targets, 7.0 receptions, 92.8 receiving yards and 18 points per game.

If Joe Burrow is healthy, Chase is going to go crazy this season. Remember, Burrow wasn’t healthy until Week 5 of last season. In Weeks 5-10 (before suffering a season-ending wrist injury), Burrow was great. And so was Chase. During that span, Chase averaged 8.0 catches, 11.0 targets, 107.4 receiving yards and over 24 fantasy points per game. I think that version of Chase is what we see this season.

Of course, most rankings will have CeeDee Lamb as the WR1. And how can you argue against it? Lamb was absurd in 2023, finishing as fantasy’s top wide receiver. So, um, yeah. I think Lamb finishing as the overall WR1 is in Lamb’s range of outcomes. Last year, Lamb saw a 30% target share, while sporting a 28% target per route run rate. But from Week 6 on, Lamb took it to a different level, posting a 33% target share and 31% target per route run rate during that stretch, while posting 10 top-10 finishes. His 150 first-read targets were the second-most in all of football and Dallas has done nothing this offseason to add to their offense. 170-plus targets are once again on the horizon for Lamb.

Make no mistake. The first tier of fantasy wide receivers isn’t a tier of four. It is absolutely a tier of five. Amon-Ra St. Brown absolutely belongs in this discussion. Only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb outscored him last year, while St. Brown has been phenomenal since the second half of his rookie season. In fact, since Week 13 of the 2021 campaign. St. Brown has averaged just under 20 PPR points per game. During that stretch, he has recorded either 70 receiving yards or a touchdown in an impressive 30-of-38 games (79%).

Tier 2: The Contenders

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

How can we not start with Puka Nacua? With 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns, Nacua had the best rookie season in NFL history. Sure, getting all of the targets through the first four weeks with Cooper Kupp sidelined certainly helped. But even when Kupp was active, the rookie shined. In fact, from Week 5 on, Nacua still led the Rams in both target share (27%) and targets per route run (26%). And in 13 games alongside Kupp, he still averaged 8.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, 86.5 receiving yards and 17.1 PPR points per contest. Kupp will be 31 before the season starts and has dealt with injuries as of late. If he misses more time in 2024, Nacua could flirt with overall WR1 production.

In two seasons since joining the Eagles, A.J. Brown has finished as the WR5 and WR6 in fantasy. He has been the focal point of Philadelphia’s RPO-centric offense, which has led to a 28% target share over the past two seasons. Last season, the Eagles ran RPO concepts 7.4% of the time, according to FTN Data, the fourth-highest rate in football. And when they passed the ball out of the play type, Brown got the football, seeing 27% of the team’s RPO targets, mostly coming off quick slant passes because, well, that’s the first read when you throw from RPO. Kellen Moore is calling the offense, but I expect the RPO usage to continue, while also (finally) adding some motion to this Eagles’ offense. Last season, according to FTN Data, Philadelphia used pre-snap motion just 22.8% of the time, the lowest rate in football. And in particular, Brown was in motion before the snap just 4.8% of the time, one of the lowest rates in the league.

Since 2022, only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb have seen more targets than Wilson (315). Last season, New York’s offense completely funneled through Wilson and running back Breece Hall, as the duo accounted for over 49% of the team’s receiving yards, as well as 48% of the receptions and 47% of the targets. Individually, Wilson saw a whopping 135 first-read targets last year, according to FTN Data, the fourth-most in all of football. With the Jets adding Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley this offseason, perhaps Wilson doesn’t repeat his 30% target share from 2023, but he should still see borderline elite volume. And perhaps more importantly, Wilson will be far more efficient. Among players with at least 230 targets over the last two years, Wilson’s 63.1 receiving yards per game ranks sixth worst in the league. During that same span, Wilson has also ranked 59th and 36th in fantasy points per route run (0.32, 0.39). A huge reason behind that has been the lack of touchdowns, an area Rodgers’ presence will drastically improve this team. Over the past two seasons, the Jets have ranked 30th and 26th in red zone scoring attempts per game, averaging just 2.4 per game during that span. And last year, the Jets averaged just 3.9 points per red zone trip, the fewest in all of football. As a result of playing in a bottom-five offense, Wilson has seen just 18 total end zone targets through his first two seasons. A huge climb to eight or nine touchdowns is very much in play in 2024.

Tier 3: The Underdogs

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

This tier features four of the best young wideouts in the league, but we can’t forget about the veteran, Davante Adams. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, no player in football has seen more targets than Adams, who saw 175 more looks this past season. His 154 first-read targets were the most in the league, which resulted in 103 receptions for 1,1444 yards and eight touchdowns. The yardage was his lowest since the 2019 season and admittedly, it isn’t as exciting to draft Adams as it once was. However, he’s still posting top-10 production and should continue to see elite volume from Gardner Minshew, who has proven to be able to support good fantasy wide receivers.

Wide receivers tend to fully break out during their third season. That’s good news for Drake London. The Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins this offseason. That’s even better. London has shown flashes of legitimate superstar ability throughout his first two seasons but has had to overcome archaic, run-centric offenses and poor quarterback play. This past season, about 30% of London’s targets were deemed uncatchable. Enter Cousins, who is one of the most accurate signal callers in the league. According to FTN Data, just 5.8% of his 2023 pass attempts were deemed inaccurate, the second-best rate among qualified quarterbacks. Between the addition of Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, London is the most logical breakout candidate this season.

An absolutely elite prospect, Marvin Harrison Jr. now joins Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, and while the offense isn’t the same as it was a few years ago, Harrison should be in line for immense volume right out of the gate. 30% of Arizona’s targets from last year need to be replaced, and we’ve seen the WR1 for this team see massive target totals. Back in 2020, DeAndre Hopkins posted a 29.4% target share, averaging 10 targets per game. And with Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the 2022 campaign, Marquise Brown operated as Arizona’s WR1. During that span, Hollywood averaged 10.7 targets and 7.2 receptions per game, while sporting a 26% target share and 23% target per route run rate.150 targets as a rookie is not at all out of the range of outcomes for Harrison. The NFL record for targets by a rookie in a season is 167, done by Terry Glenn back in 1996 with the Patriots. But let’s even be a little conservative, shall we?

At FTN, we have Harrison projected for just over 130 targets this season. There have still only been 11 wide receivers to see at least 130 targets during their rookie seasons. Among those nine wideouts, the average fantasy finish was around WR15, with five players finishing as WR13 or better. We obviously saw what Puka Nacua did this past season and while it will be tough to repeat what he did, Harrison is as good of a prospect, if not better, than most of the wide receivers on this list. A top-12 fantasy finish is very, very possible in year one.

Tier 4: The Deep Sleepers

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Now that we have reached the fourth tier, you will start to see obstacles for many players to contend as fantasy’s WR1. The player who has the best chance to accomplish that feat, to me, is Brandon Aiyuk. For starters, he’s probably just the overall best player from this tier and if he hasn’t played in such a crowded offense, Aiyuk’s stats would be up there with some of the best wideouts in the game. But he’s remained very efficient. This past season, Aiyuk caught 75 passes for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. Despite ranking 36th in the NFL in targets, Aiyuk finished seventh in receiving yards. His 17.9 yards per reception ranked third, while Aiyuk also finished top-three in yards per route run and yards per target. There have been rumors surrounding Deebo Samuel this offseason and if he is traded at any point, Aiyuk will be, at the very least, a top-10 fantasy wide receiver.

Meanwhile, DJ Moore and Nico Collins — who were both top-10 in fantasy points per game last year — saw added target competition. And after the emergence of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp is now very possibly the 1B in the Los Angeles passing attack. If the Texans didn’t trade for Stefon Diggs, Collins would easily be in the third tier, especially given how much upside he has on a per-target basis. And that upside still exists but the volume is going to take a hit.

One of the most interesting players in this tier is Jaylen Waddle. He struggled to stay on the field for full games consistently last year and while Tyreek Hill is clearly the WR1 in Miami, we did see Waddle finish as the WR8 in fantasy during Hill’s first season with the Dolphins. We know Miami’s offense is going to run enough plays and be efficient enough for both wide receivers to thrive, though I’d really love to see more designed touches for Waddle. Miami runs more pre-snap motion than anyone in the league but most of that runs through Hill, not Waddle. According to FTN Data, Hill was in motion before the snap 18.3% of the time, the 11th-highest rate among WR/TE. Waddle, however, was all the way down at 3.9%, with just 23 snaps in pre-snap motion.

Tier 5: If You Squint

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

The two players who stand out the most to me here both play in the AFC North. Zay Flowers had a productive rookie season, hauling in 77 passes for nearly 900 yards and five touchdowns. Flowers saw a ton of schemed touches in Baltimore’s offense, often moving around the formation before the snap to get free releases and easy receptions. The downfield usage hopefully takes a step forward in his sophomore season, which can unlock his upside, especially in a concentrated passing offense.

Then there is George Pickens, who has as much upside as anyone from this tier. With Diontae Johnson now in Carolina, Pickens is the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh and we saw him operate as such during the first four weeks of last season when Johnson was sidelined. In Weeks 2-6 last season, Pickens ran a route on 97% of dropbacks, while posting a 29% target share and 25% target per route run rate. During that span, he averaged 8.3 targets, 4.3 receptions, 89.3 receiving yards and 16.6 PPR points per game. Hopefully we see more of a variety in routes from Pickens this season, especially with Johnson gone. But even if he still runs a ton of go routes, that could make him an ideal fit with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, as both players love to hold onto the football and take shots down the perimeter. In 2023, 20.8% of Pickens’ targets came off go routes, one of the highest rates in the league.