Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Putting one’s neck out there is a fundamental practice when you’re the CEO of #TeamHuevos. Hey, you have to risk it to make the biscuit. Every year, every fantasy football season, surprises occur, twists so shocking few, if any, ever see them coming. Gazing into the crystal ball and creeping out onto a very long limb, here are my top-10 boldest predictions among TEs in this The Year of our Ceaseless Pestilence, 2020:
1. Chris Herndon ignites for the New York Jets and soars into the position’s top-eight.
How can it happen? Adam Gase gets booted to Poughkeepsie and the Jets install Lincoln Riley as their new head coach. OK, the odds of that occurring rank up there with Salma Hayek leaving her billionaire husband for a balding fantasy “expert” with an affinity for underperforming fantasy running backs. Still, Herndon stands at the precipice of a breakout. Earlier this summer, Gase openly professed his excitement to get the tight end more involved. The declaration coupled with reports Herndon’s chemistry with Sam Darnold is “blossoming” lend positive vibes. Given his mouth-watering athletic profile and impressive gains from his rookie season — he strung together a 39-502-4 line on just 12.1% of the team’s target share and ranked inside the TE top-10 in average depth of target and yards per catch — penetrating the TE1 class in 12-team leagues is very believable.
2. Jared Cook crumples into a worthless heap, much like your buddy after a gallon of boozy slushie drinks on Bourbon Street, and finishes outside the TE top-15.
How can it happen? “Alarmingly efficient” is the best way to describe the Chef Boyardee of tight end’s 2019 exploits. Before Emmanuel Sanders inked a contract with the Saints, the numbers potentially predicted Cook’s imminent doom. In brief, the man maximized every opportunity imaginable. Luring only 13.5% of New Orleans’ target share (4.6 per game over 14 contests) — less than half what Zach Ertz attracted — he totaled nine touchdowns and finished one spot behind the Eagles TE in total fantasy production. His top billing in yards per reception (16.4) and yards per target (10.8) combined with information above suggest a repeat is highly unlikely. With added competition for targets, anticipate a significant decline.
3. George Kittle, who’s scored five times in each of the past two seasons, doubles his TD output from those campaigns and finishes in the 10-12 range.
How can it happen? Equipped with the energy and enthusiasm of 100 sugar-fueled children trying to score overpriced crap at the local Dave & Buster’s, Kittle is about to record his finest statistical season to date. HC Kyle Shannahan is “hopeful” Deebo Samuel (Jones fracture) will be ready for the opener, but odds seem long. Even if he does return, the tight end’s career year could begin with a multi-TD effort Week 1. His opponent, Arizona, is allergic to defending the position. Add in the season-ending injury to Jalen Hurd and the popular Round 2 pick could threaten Travis Kelce for top-of-the-position honors. It’s baffling a player with a high standing in YAC per reception and red-zone target rate rarely finds the end zone. The positive TD regression kicks in this year.
4. Will Dissly, from the ADP depths, finishes inside the TE1 ranks in 12-team leagues.
How can it happen? Simple, just pick up where you left off. Seattle may rival the Chicago Bears for “most tight ends” bragging rights, but the Montana native, healthy and practicing after last year’s season-ending knee injury, is the best of the bunch. Prior to the derailment, Dissly was on track for a top-10 season. Over six games he tallied 3.8 receptions per game, 43.7 yards per game and scored four times. His 30.8% red-zone target share was on par with Mark Andrews. If Russell Wilson continues to look his way near the goal line, the TE30, in ADP speak, could be one heck of a hidden treasure.
5. Darren Waller builds off his breakthrough 2019 and pushes Travis Kelce and Kittle for the TE throne.
How can it happen? Arguably the most underappreciated tight end in fantasy drafts, Waller is a baller extraordinaire. His sensational athletic profile, reliability and rapport with Derek Carr arrow to continued profits. He’s your standard issue positive TD regression candidate. Though lined up in the crosshairs the fourth-most times at the position, he ranked No. 28 in red-zone target share. As Raiders beat writer Tashan Reed recently discussed on my SiriusXM show, defenses keyed on the big man in the end-zone, a major reason why the Silver and Black struggled to score last season. Added weapons Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards should assist in freeing up Waller. Bank on another 75-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards and at least six TDs.
6. Austin Hooper outproduces Atlanta replacement Hayden Hurst and Tyler Higbee and profits handsomely at his TE11 (117.7) ADP.
How can it happen? Discounted in drafts due to the Matt Ryan-to-Baker Mayfield quarterback transition, Hooper, despite ranking TE3 in fantasy points per game last season in 0.5 PPR, is largely viewed as a fringe TE1 in 12-team leagues. Based on news emanating from Browns camp, the perceived devaluation could be a mistake. He caught 77.3% of his targets with Atlanta last season and ranked No. 2 in contested catch rate. A focal point for Mayfield throughout Browns training camp, he may not slice off chunks from last season’s 75-787-6 line. Higbee, whose splits are quite worrisome with Gerald Everett in the lineup, and Hurst, though talented in filling Hooper’s old role, has never played at a high-usage rate. Questions exist.
