NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Week 5’s main NFL DFS slate is approaching, and for the first time this season, there are only 12 games on the slate instead of 13, given the game between the Jets and Falcons kicking off at 9:30 a.m. ET in London.
As I have every week so far, I will be providing my top five SuperDraft DFS picks for the Sunday slate. If you are unfamiliar with SuperDraft, there is no salary cap. Instead, there are individual score multipliers assigned to every player.
Below are my top five plays on SuperDraft for Week 5.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers (1.65x score multiplier)
Welcome to Trey Lance chalk week, and no, this is not chalk that I plan to fade. The electric rookie quarterback is slated to make his first start of the season as Jimmy Garoppolo was held out of practice all week and fortunately for Lance, the start will come in a matchup that caters to fantasy production.
The Cardinals are currently playing at a top-10 pace in the league (per FTNFantasy’s pace tool), averaging the second-most no-huddle plays (32.45%) on offense, a contributing factor in the 48.5-point implied total on the game. With Lance under center for the 49ers, we could see an even faster pace. As Derek Brown noted in his game-by-game article:
“In Week 4, with Lance under center, the passing rate (54.2%) in a 7-7 tie entering the third quarter remained similar, but their pace shot through the roof with 22.8 seconds per snap. Mix that in with an Arizona team that ranks 10th and 11th (60.3%) in neutral pace and passing rate, and this game could easily turn into a shootout of epic proportions.”
With a 1.65x-multiplier, Lance is set to explode at a high roster percentage. This is not a popular play that I want to avoid.
Damien Williams, RB, Chicago Bears (1.55x)
Continuing the theme of chalk that I’m willing to play, Damien Williams follows suit with Lance. Per my Thursday-Monday DFS piece:
“Since the start of 2018, Williams has done nothing but produce when given the opportunity. Using the FTN Daily splits tool, in games where Williams has logged at least 15 touches, he’s averaged over 75 rushing yards per game and five catches per game, showcasing his ability to thrive on passing downs. At such an affordable price with a significant role regardless of game script, Williams should be one of the most popular plays on the slate and like Lance, this is chalk worth eating.”
The Raiders are also an extremely favorable matchup, as they’ve allowed 4.85 yards per attempt (fourth-highest mark in the NFL), six rushing touchdowns (tied for the second most in NFL), and the fourth-highest gash rate (13.4%). At his multiplier, his workload and matchup are too much to pass up on just because of the projected popularity.
A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans (1.3x)
Even having left Week 3 in the first quarter, A.J. Brown still carried a target share north of 18% in his active games. His 289 air yards lead the team by a 50-yard margin. Returning in Week 5 with fellow wideout Julio Jones unable to play, Brown should bounce back to the stud-like volume that we saw all of 2020.
He also draws an incredibly favorable matchup against Shaquill Griffin, who has allowed a 64% catch rate and 0.22 fantasy points per route (compared to Brown’s rate of 0.26 fantasy points per route). Operating as the obvious alpha in the offense in a matchup that’s more favorable to the pass than it is the run, Brown isn’t only great leverage off Derrick Henry, he’s a phenomenal play regardless of how you’re building your lineups with his 1.3x multiplier.
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Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.5x)
Sure, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Tampa Bay’s passing attack, but it’s rather clear Antonio Brown is the favorite of Tom Brady. Brown ranks second on the team in air yard percentage (27.33%, 326 air yards), third in targets (21 despite missing a game to COVID-19) and third in target rate (16.67%).
Brown has recorded at least 60 yards or a touchdown in two of his three active games and most recently, 11 targets against the Patriots Sunday night. While the matchup with Xavien Howard is a daunting one on paper, he’s been somewhat targetable this season, allowing a 102.4 passer rating. At a 1.5x multiplier, Brown has way too much big-play upside and has proven to have the ability to rack up voluminous production to pad his floor, making him a great play when looking for a heightened floor/ceiling combination.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys (1.65x)
Per my Week 5 waiver wire article, Schultz has emerged as a favorite target in the high-upside Cowboys’ offense:
“Schultz has drawn at least six targets in three of four games this season, catching at least six passes in all three of those games, and has most recently logged three touchdowns over the last two weeks. He also grabbed a strangle-hold on the snap share in Week 3, playing 48 snaps to Blake Jarwin’s 32 and running 14 routes to Jarwin’s four. In such a potent offense, he’s a tight end worth starting every week moving forward.”
Taking on a Giants offense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the tight end position, Schultz has another opportunity to put together a massive stat line at a very favorable multiplier that has yet to catch up to his production.
