SuperDraft DFS picks and predictions for Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us, and we have our first full DFS slate of games kicking off a mere 24 hours from now.

Each week, I will provide you with my top five plays that I am targeting on SuperDraft. Haven’t played? SuperDraft puts a fun twist on DFS by eliminating a salary cap and replacing it with production multipliers, making it a completely different strategy.

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My top five SuperDraft NFL DFS plays for Week 1 are below.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles, @ ATL (1.35x score multiplier)

When you combine the Komani Code upside Jalen Hurts brings to the table and the matchup on paper, it’s hard to find a better option at quarterback given Hurts’ 1.35x multiplier. While Hurts only started four games last season, he topped 330 passing yards in two of them while rushing for at least 60 yards and/or a touchdown in all four. While Atlanta has a tough front seven, their secondary allowed the third-most passing touchdowns (34), the most overall passing yards (4,909), and sixth-most yards per attempt (7.84) in 2020. Given the game environment (O/U 48.5, played in a dome), this sets up for a ceiling game for the second-year quarterback.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, @ BUF (1.4x)

It’s hard to find many true three-down backs in today’s NFL, but Najee Harris enters the league as just that. Despite the shaky offensive line play in Pittsburgh, Harris’ projected volume alone makes him a worthwhile target at such a high multiplier.

While the Bills had a respectable secondary last season, they were a middling unit against the run, allowing the sixth-most yards per attempt (4.47), sixth-most rushing touchdowns (21), and the third-most red-zone touchdowns (18) in 2020, per FTNFantasy’s advanced rushing defense stats. Given the projected snap count, volume, and exploitability of the defense, Harris has a high chance of kicking off his NFL career with a bang.

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Julio Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans, vs. ARZ (1.25x)

Both Titans receivers are in a great spot this weekend, but with Julio Jones holding the edge in terms of multiplier over A.J. Brown (1.25x vs. 1.2x), he gets the nod.

While the Titans haven’t been a high-volume passing attack, they’ve been one of the most efficient aerial attacks. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has posted a 55:13 TD:INT ratio over his two years in Tennessee while posting completion rates of 70.3% and 65.5% while posting a 105.3 passer rating on 36 deep passes. He’s bound to see that number rise with Jones, who saw nine deep targets in only nine games last season. That’s three more than fellow wideout AJ Brown saw in 14 games last season.

Given the 53.5-point implied total against a Cardinals’ secondary that just lost the few pieces that they had, Jones could have an absolute field day downfield.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts, vs. SEA (1.85X)

The Colts have generated virtually zero buzz this week, and with Carson Wentz expected to play and with there still being a chance that left guard Quenton Nelson suits up (per the FTNFantasy Weekly Practice Report), the offense is in a smash spot against a brutal secondary.

This Seahawks secondary allowed the highest adjusted completion percentage (78%) and second-most passing yards (4,810) in 2020 and with T.Y. Hilton out, Michael Pittman steps into a de facto WR1 role. With a multiplier that rivals WR4s and WR5s, this is insane value for a projected WR1 in a smash matchup.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons, vs. PHI (1.5x)

Kyle Pitts is going to be the chalk, but it’s chalk that I’m willing to eat when you combine projected role, game environment, and the multiplier.

As alluded to in the Hurts blurb, this Eagles/Falcons game projects to be a shootout, carrying a 48.5-point total in a dome with two lackluster secondaries. Pitts is also expected to step into a prominent role following the departure of Julio Jones. With a quarterback likely to sling the ball 40-plus times, Pitts should be in store for a massive target share and should be a fixture in the red zone, making this one of the most attractive multipliers on the slate.