Super Bowl NFL Player Props of the Week

The Super Bowl is finally here, and we are down to a battle between Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. In this article I take you through some of my favorite props on the slate, including some unique offerings.

Kadarius Toney Over 25.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, PointsBet)

One of my favorite spots for the Super Bowl has to be Kadarius Toney, who I think is going a bit undervalued this week. The Kansas City receiver room has been a bit banged up, but it does look like Toney will be healthy for this game. Mecole Hardman being ruled out for this game is also huge for Toney’s usage, considering they both have a lot of gadgety plays drawn up. The most recent reports out of practice seem to indicate Toney is good to go — “running around like crazy” is a positive sign. JuJu Smith-Schuster has an injury that could flair up anytime, and there isn’t much depth with Justin Watson and Skyy Moore. 

Toney is one of those players who doesn’t have a high volume but is one of the most efficient receivers on a per-catch basis, as shown by his 30% targets per route run and 2.27 YPRR (including playoffs). He also greatly benefits from the injuries in the WR room and the lack of elite target competition. His short-yardage/gadget usage will be key in defeating a strong Philadelphia secondary. Darius Slay and James Bradberry make up the best outside corner duo in the league, and the routes Toney should be running will avoid those tougher matchups. Travis Kelce also draws so much attention over the middle that more YAC opportunities can be opened up for Toney.

Eagles to Convert a 4th Down in Their Own Territory

(+300, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is under “Game Props” on the Draftkings Super Bowl Specials page. Under coach Nick Sirianni, the Eagles are one of the most aggressive fourth-down teams in the NFL, and I expect to see that continue in this matchup. Even with two complete blowouts, they had aggressive playcalling, including converting a fourth down in their own territory when it was 7-7 against the 49ers. The Eagles have had more success than any other team on fourth down, mostly due to the quarterback sneak usage, and everything else that opens up in the playbook. Good coaches know that you need to bring an aggressive gameplan when facing Kansas City, and I expect Sirianni to come out as aggressive as he’s been all season long.

Travis Kelce to Make First Chiefs Reception

(+275, BetMGM)

One of the most important things Andy Reid has been able to do is get Patrick Mahomes going early. Especially with his injury, establishing that short passing game will be very important, and who better to start that than Travis Kelce? Kelce has been Mahomes’ favorite target over the last couple seasons, and what better player to start the game strong. The Eagles strength is their secondary, so targeting them over the middle with Kelce will be their path to least resistance. I like the idea of Andy Reid starting out with an aggressive short passing game, and I like taking a risk on their No. 1 target at +275.